Resolution criteria

This market resolves to the name of the vehicle that performs the next orbital or suborbital launch from the listed options.

• Falcon Heavy: Set to launch Via Sat 3 NET April 2026

• Starship: Flight 12 NET May 2026

• Ariane 6: Set to launch Amazon Leo (LE-02) NET April 28

A launch is defined as the vehicle lifting off from the launch pad. If multiple listed vehicles launch on the same day, the vehicle that launches earliest resolves the market. Verification will be based on official mission reports from SpaceX, Arianespace, NASA or spaceflight news trackers such as Spaceflight Now or Next Spaceflight. If somehow they are all indefinitely delayed I’ll consider resolving N/A.

Background

This market tracks the next major launch milestone for three heavy-lift launch vehicles currently in active use or testing.

• Falcon Heavy: SpaceX’s heavy-lift vehicle, utilizing three Falcon 9 boosters, currently used for high-mass payloads and deep-space missions.

• Starship: SpaceX’s fully reusable, super-heavy-lift launch vehicle currently undergoing an intensive flight test campaign to achieve operational status for orbital and interplanetary missions.

• Ariane 6: The European Space Agency’s (ESA) heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle, which recently entered service to replace the Ariane 5, providing Europe with independent access to space.

Because the launch cadence for these vehicles is subject to technical, weather, and regulatory delays, the sequence of launches can change rapidly.

This description was generated by AI. Edited by myself for accuracy.