Successful Starship splashdowns before orbital launch attempt?
10
1kṀ2917Jul 1
1%
4
4%
5
43%
6
27%
7
14%
8
11%
The minimum is 4 as i am counting flights 4, 5, 6 and 10 as successfully splashed down.
Update 2025-11-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This is not a multiple resolution market - only one option can resolve YES.
The market was temporarily resolved as 4 and then unresolved.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?
5% chance
Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?
89% chance
How many Successful Starship Splashdowns before successful Starship Catch?
Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit?
When will Starship successfully land for the first time?
10/20/26
When will Starship first launch with useful payload?