Grey area if landed but is destroyed in transport back to land:
Will resolve YES if it landed and got destroyed if the reason given is purely due to poor weather conditions or other non rocket issues.
Will resolve NO if there is any reference to damage caused during landing/flight contributing to the loss of vehicle in transport. I.E. SN10 landing and subsequent explosion being a clear cut example of this.
Let me know if you have any questions or concerns about market. Thanks have fun!
Update 2025-11-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market will not resolve immediately - creator is waiting until New Glenn returns to port to ensure no transport-related issues occur that could affect resolution per the existing criteria about damage during transport.
1,000๐ Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | แน47 | |
| 2 | แน43 | |
| 3 | แน14 |
People are also trading
@Nat hey im gonna wait at least until new glenn returns to port just incase anything happens during transport as i did specify that market would resolve NO if landing/flight related damage caused the failure during transport.
https://manifold.markets/ElPlan/will-the-new-glenn-first-stage-succ?r=UnlhblR5em5hcg
Duplicate market here^
Theirs was posted first. I swear i searched to see if this market exists already before i posted but i guess i didn't look hard enough.