Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the New Glenn first stage booster, 'Never Tell Me the Odds,' successfully lands on the landing platform vessel (LPV-1) during the NG-2 mission. Resolution will be determined by official Blue Origin broadcast confirming a successful landing. The market resolves NO if the booster is lost, crashes, or fails to land on LPV-1 during NG-2.

Background

On the NG-1 flight in January 2025, Blue Origin's first stage was lost on descent. The final mishap report identified the proximate cause as an inability of New Glenn's first stage to fully restart the engines, preventing a full duration reentry burn from occurring. During the 2025 International Astronautical Congress, Blue Origin's vice president of space systems development said they "fully intend" to recover the booster during the upcoming flight. NG-2 is targeting no earlier than Novemba 11 2025.

• Update 2025-11-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Landing stability clarification:

  • The booster must be stable after landing on the landing platform vessel (LPV-1)

  • If the booster tips over or falls during landing (similar to SpaceX's early landing attempts), this resolves NO

  • If the booster falls over after a successful landing while being transported back to port, this still resolves YES