Will an infrastructure provider attempt to censor Twitter in the next six months?
31
610Ṁ3605
resolved Mar 8
Resolved
YES

Infrastructure provider: for example, Apple on the App Store, Google on the Google Play store, Cloudflare, or an ISP.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ461
2Ṁ310
3Ṁ165
4Ṁ52
5Ṁ41
Sort by:

Thanks a lot @Joshua

@Joshua, @PlasmaBallin, can you resolve this market please? Author seems unresponsive

“On closer inspection, they discovered that the filter had been applied at ISP (internet service provider) level using an advanced technique that’s been deployed before in Turkey, preventing users from accessing Twitter.”

https://www.indexoncensorship.org/2023/02/the-shock-waves-from-turkeys-twitter-restriction/

Also Iran, Russia, China and Myanmar were at least partially blocking twitter on 2023-05-19

https://explorer.ooni.org/search?since=2022-11-19&until=2023-05-20&failure=false&domain=twitter.com&only=confirmed

@JaimeSantaCruz this seems like a pretty clear Yes to me. An ISP in Turkey censored twitter and it was reported by multiple trustworthy sources.

Nothing in the question implies it would have to be in the US.

predictedYES

@EvanDaniel Does this work for you to resolve?

@traders I'm reopening the question in hopes we can find an answer. Note that this is about the time range of 2022-11-19 to 2023-05-20, not things that happened since.

Post citations in the comments; hopefully we can avoid an N/A resolution.

@EvanDaniel Did my comment convince you? Can you resolve? Thanks!

@traders It appears the creator is inactive. We can do a mod resolve, but I'd like to see a clear case for how it should resolve, with whatever sources are appropriate.

@RyanMcWhorter I think this can be resolved.

predictedYES

resolve?

predictedYES

@MarcusAbramovitch This seems like a candidate for a trustworthishy resolve (preferably one who isn't betting in the market?) - the creator appears to have been inactive for months and months. I don't remember the whole procedure for that though, so maybe if there's a necessary step for that someone could initiate that.

predictedYES

@Imuli sure, i'd rather not do it.

predictedNO

@MarcusAbramovitch any idea how to start a process for resolving this?

predictedNO
predictedNO

Anyone know if the author is still active

Did nobody hear about https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2023/02/turkey-govt-blocking-twitter-access-hampering-earthquake-rescue-org-suggests/ ?

edit: I mean, I recognize that Yoav's comment has remained unanswered - hence not bidding this up all the way.

Does this count international ISPs?

Related:

Argggh, not related at all. I misread the title and somehow thought this market was about Manifold, not Twitter. Wish I could delete comments.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules