Will X / Twitter become inaccessible in Europe during 2025?

100Ṁ1202

2026

15%

chance

ALL

Will resolve to YES if the social network X, formerly known as Twitter, becomes inaccessible from European Union states because of a court order or a deliberate decision by the company.

Resolve to NO if that does not happen between 01.01.2025 and 31.12.2025

Clarifications:

If the application is inaccessible from a couple of EU countries it does not count, it has to be the entire EU or the vast majority of it.
If the application becomes inaccessible from the whole world due to a decision or a legal action (e.g. bankruptcy) it does count.
Inaccessibility due to technical issues does not count.
If it happens in 2024 this won't resolve NO, it is still possible that the decision is flipped and happens again in 2025.

H/t to @0482 for creating the original 2024 market and (my slightly modified) criteria.

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8mo

I propose Musk's Law: If you tell someone 'fuck off', you don't get to sue them for fucking off.

reposted 8mo

Relations are looking great right now

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What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

Why use play money?

Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.

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