Will an infrastructure provider attempt to censor Twitter in the next six months?
31
224
610
resolved Mar 8
Resolved
YES

Infrastructure provider: for example, Apple on the App Store, Google on the Google Play store, Cloudflare, or an ISP.

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Thanks a lot @Joshua

@Joshua, @PlasmaBallin, can you resolve this market please? Author seems unresponsive

@RyanMcWhorter resolve plz

bought Ṁ100 of YES

“On closer inspection, they discovered that the filter had been applied at ISP (internet service provider) level using an advanced technique that’s been deployed before in Turkey, preventing users from accessing Twitter.”

https://www.indexoncensorship.org/2023/02/the-shock-waves-from-turkeys-twitter-restriction/

Also Iran, Russia, China and Myanmar were at least partially blocking twitter on 2023-05-19

https://explorer.ooni.org/search?since=2022-11-19&until=2023-05-20&failure=false&domain=twitter.com&only=confirmed

bought Ṁ175 of YES

@JaimeSantaCruz this seems like a pretty clear Yes to me. An ISP in Turkey censored twitter and it was reported by multiple trustworthy sources.

Nothing in the question implies it would have to be in the US.

predicted YES

@EvanDaniel Does this work for you to resolve?

@traders I'm reopening the question in hopes we can find an answer. Note that this is about the time range of 2022-11-19 to 2023-05-20, not things that happened since.

Post citations in the comments; hopefully we can avoid an N/A resolution.

@EvanDaniel Did my comment convince you? Can you resolve? Thanks!

@traders It appears the creator is inactive. We can do a mod resolve, but I'd like to see a clear case for how it should resolve, with whatever sources are appropriate.

@RyanMcWhorter I think this can be resolved.

predicted YES

resolve?

predicted YES

@MarcusAbramovitch This seems like a candidate for a trustworthishy resolve (preferably one who isn't betting in the market?) - the creator appears to have been inactive for months and months. I don't remember the whole procedure for that though, so maybe if there's a necessary step for that someone could initiate that.

predicted YES

@Imuli sure, i'd rather not do it.

predicted NO

@MarcusAbramovitch any idea how to start a process for resolving this?

predicted NO
predicted NO

Anyone know if the author is still active

bought Ṁ100 of YES

Did nobody hear about https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2023/02/turkey-govt-blocking-twitter-access-hampering-earthquake-rescue-org-suggests/ ?

edit: I mean, I recognize that Yoav's comment has remained unanswered - hence not bidding this up all the way.

Does this count international ISPs?

Related:

Argggh, not related at all. I misread the title and somehow thought this market was about Manifold, not Twitter. Wish I could delete comments.