Will Venezuela invade Guyana before EOY 2024?
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I will update the description as needed, I won't be participating in this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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It's hard to see what the point would be; forcibly annexing Essequibo wouldn't magically result in Venezuela controlling the offshore oil fields. The "Bolivarian Navy of Venezuela" does outclass the sea patrol arm of the Guyana Defence Forces, but the US and UK have already sided with Guyana, and they have real navies.
And under the Nuremberg precedent, invading Essequibo would definitively make Maduro a war criminal, as Venezuela is a party to Kellogg-Briand.
But I'm not going to actually bet against Maduro doing something stupid.
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