What will I do before December 2027?
50%
Have sex with a cisgender person
49%
Get a job
23%
Be hospitalized
20%
Go 14 days without making a bet on Manifold
20%
Willfully do a recreational drug other than caffeine, alcohol, marijuana, or nicotine
15%
Accidentally break my Nintendo Switch 2 (must be my fault; does not include manufacturing defects, inevitable battery degradation, etc)
12%
Leave the USA
12%
Fail to vote in an American election that I'm eligible to vote in
11%
Get a STD (and be aware of it)
6%
Willfully eat an animal product (excluding human and excluding lab-grown meat)
5%
Vote for a Republican in a general election (excluding nonpartisan and unopposed elections)
1%
Rob a Baskin-Robbins ran by a Rob in robes
Resolved
YES
Tell someone to commit suicide on Manifold (resolves YES)

Feel free to ask for clarification or context on any answer.

I am a 20 year old transfem enby. I am currently a sophomore at Missouri State University studying information technology.

What will I do after this market page's creation and before December 2027?

Contexts:

  • Have sex with a cisgender person - I am trans and strongly prefer to have sex with other trans people, but I'm not completely opposed to having sex with cis people if I find a cool one. I'm fairly open to casual hookups and have had sex with 2 different (trans) people so far this year.

  • Willfully eat an animal product (excluding human and excluding lab-grown meat) - I am vegan for animal rights reasons. I currently don't think it's ethical to eat animal products. This resolving YES would likely require a shift in my ethical beliefs. (Human is excluded because I sometimes cook with my own blood and milk.)

  • Fail to vote in an American election that I'm eligible to vote in - I consider myself pretty politically engaged, so I think this is pretty unlikely.

  • Vote for a Republican in a general election (excluding nonpartisan and unopposed elections) - I consider myself a committed progressive and I strongly dislike the Republican Party.

  • Willfully do a recreational drug other than alcohol, marijuana, or nicotine - I'm pretty scared of drugs and I'm disinclined to them at the moment.

  • Get a job - College keeps my plate pretty full and I don't intend to actively search for jobs unless an opportunity presents itself to me.

  • Be hospitalized - I don't think I do many risky things. My current medical issues include being overweight, and lifelong balance issues that I walk with a cane to mitigate.

  • Leave the USA - I don't have much money, I don't have a reason at the moment to do so, and I'm hesitant to leave or enter the USA right now due to Trump's handling of border issues.

  • Update 2025-04-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the Get a STD (and be aware of it) answer:

    • The creator notes they donate plasma frequently.

    • This means they are frequently tested for HIV, Hepatitis B, and Syphilis, increasing the likelihood of awareness for these specific STDs.

  • Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the Willfully do a recreational drug other than alcohol, marijuana, or nicotine answer:

    • Caffeine does not count.

    • Painkillers count if used recreationally, but do not count if used primarily for their intended medical purposes.

  • Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the Willfully eat an animal product (excluding human and excluding lab-grown meat) answer:

    • For the purposes of this market's exclusion, puppygirls count as human.

  • Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the Fail to vote in an American election that I'm eligible to vote in answer:

    • This includes all American elections the creator is eligible to vote in, including local elections.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy