MANIFOLD
Where will I be living at the end of 2025?
9
Ṁ200Ṁ900
resolved Jan 1
100%98.3%
Rest-of-USA (wherever)
0.3%
New York City
0.3%
San Francisco Bay Area
0.2%
Chicago
0.2%
Rest-of-USA (big city)
0.2%
Canada
0.2%
Rest-of-world (Britain / Former British colonies outside North America)
0.2%Other

Semi-vibes-based question: resolves based on whether I consider myself to be living there (e.g., have I moved my desk and monitors there, or equivalent? Do I intend to?). No shenanigans.

I can / do work remotely and have a U.S. passport.

(Add new answers that seem interesting: “Berkeley” seems like part of SF -> N/A; “Boston” or “D.C.” might be sufficiently distinct from “Rest-of-USA (big city)”. So too could, “Anywhere in Texas”. But you may want to sell me on it too, if it’s not already listed.)

I may trade on this market to reflect the odds as I perceive them—but I will not change where I am living merely to spite the market.

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opened a Ṁ250 YES at 15% order

where du live now?

@jim Right now, San Diego—in roughly 2 months, Buffalo area, with the goal to be elsewhere.

@jim Well, sometimes “some things ever happen”—I am now in the Western New York area, so it’s looking like “Rest-of-USA (wherever)”. Divest or invest accordingly!

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