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MANIFOLD
Will a meteor, regardless of size, cause catastrophic damage to a spacecraft prior to June 20th 2024
8
Ṁ150Ṁ926
resolved Jun 21
Resolved
NO

does not include space junk collisions.

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Meteor
a small body of matter from outer space that enters the earth's atmosphere, becoming incandescent as a result of friction and appearing as a streak of light.

A small non space junk item is likely to vaporise and not be detectable if/when it enters atmosphere after a collision. If after a collision, part survives and enters atmosphere would we be able to tell if it came from the collision to the atmospheric entry and even if we can tell that, would we be able to know whether it was part of the spacecraft?

So really this leaves a large meteor or maybe a meteor which bounces off the atmosphere and then hits a satellite (assuming satellite counts as a spacecraft).

predictedNO

This has never happened in the 60+ years of space flight. It seems 21 percent still seems too high a probability

Never happened? MS-22 ? Has the cause been identified to be something other than micrometeor? Perhaps it wasn't catastrophic as internal temps 'only' reached 50C.

Typo 2014->2024 in title

predictedNO

@zaphod Thank you