Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before January 1, 2030, a human-made object exceeding 100 kilograms re-enters Earth's atmosphere in an uncontrolled manner and causes property damage. Credible reports from reputable news organizations or official government statements confirming such an event will serve as the basis for resolution. If no such event occurs by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."

Background:

Uncontrolled reentries of large human-made objects have occurred in the past, sometimes resulting in property damage. Notable incidents include:

• Kosmos 954 (1978): A Soviet satellite that re-entered over Canada, scattering radioactive debris over a large area. Source

• Skylab (1979): NASA's space station re-entered over Australia, with debris causing minor property damage. Source

• Long March 5B core stage (2020): A Chinese rocket stage re-entered over the Atlantic Ocean, with debris reportedly causing damage to buildings in Côte d'Ivoire. Source

These events highlight the potential risks associated with uncontrolled reentries of large objects.