*This market is a copy of a market which originally appeared on Polymarket and will resolve identically to the original question on Polymarket. This includes the possibility of a resolution at "50%".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-4 has 500 billion or more parameters when released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market covers how many parameters GPT-4 has at the time of its initial release, and will resolve based on that number regardless of whether that figure is later increased or decreased.
If GPT-4 is not released by December 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
GPT-4 refers to a product that is explicitly named GPT-4, or is a successor to GPT-3 in the way that GPT-3 was a successor to GPT-2; it cannot be branded as GPT3.5 or a version of GPT-3.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, however a consensus of credible reporting (including corroborating statements from employees of OpenAI where available) may also be used.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ130 | |
| 2 | Ṁ35 | |
| 3 | Ṁ35 | |
| 4 | Ṁ29 | |
| 5 | Ṁ18 |
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@MarcusAbramovitch This resolves to the same outcome as the original on Polymarket, which has not yet resolved.
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@JonasVollmer Are you sure? It says, "If GPT-4 is not released by December 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50." But GPT-4 has been released.
The wording is the same on Polymarket, so the acting as if it will be 50-50 on Dec 31 has confused me.
@jonsimon Sorry forgot to add in the disclaimer at the top. The market resolves identically to the original found on polymarket