Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if the United Russia party wins more than 324 seats in the 2026 Russian legislative (State Duma) election.

This market resolves to NO if United Russia wins 324 seats or fewer (representing a net loss or no change compared to their 2021 election result of 324 seats).

• Source of Truth: Resolution will be determined by the official results published by the Central Election Commission (CEC) of the Russian Federation, or widely accepted reporting from reputable outlets such as Meduza or the finalized Wikipedia page for the 2026 Russian legislative election.

• Baseline: The baseline for comparison is the 324 seats United Russia won in the previous 2021 Duma election, rather than active seats held immediately prior to the 2026 dissolution. If the creator intends to use the active pre-election seat count instead of the 2021 election baseline, they must edit this description prior to election day.

• Postponement: If the election is canceled, postponed indefinitely, or does not take place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to N/A.

Background

The 2026 Russian legislative elections are scheduled to be held from September 18 to 20, 2026, to elect all 450 deputies of the 9th State Duma.

In the previous 2021 legislative elections, the ruling party, United Russia, secured 324 seats, maintaining its constitutional supermajority. Due to subsequent vacancies, deaths, or other political shifts, the number of active United Russia deputies has fluctuated slightly throughout the convocation.

The election uses a parallel mixed system: 225 deputies are elected via party-list proportional representation (with a 5% threshold), and 225 are elected in single-member constituencies by first-past-the-post voting.