In the first Russian Duma election where United Russia does not win a plurality of seats, which party will?

Question

This question will resolve to the party that gains the plurality of the seat in the Russian State Duma the first time it is neither the United Russia (UR) party nor its direct successor. [Note: closing time may be extended]

In the case two parties gain the same number of seats:

If none of them are UR: resolves based on the number of votes

If one of them is UR: resolves to the second party

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Communist Party (CPRF), followed by Other and Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) are most likely. See the market for live updates (5 traders, as of Aug 10, 2025).

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