This will be determined by data.ipu.org.

Resolution criteria

United Russia held 326 seats in the State Duma following the 2021 election (note: some sources cite 324 as the final count after independent candidates joined the party). The market resolves YES if United Russia wins more than 326 seats in the 2026 State Duma election, and NO if it wins 326 seats or fewer.

Resolution will be determined by official results published on data.ipu.org or the Central Election Commission of Russia (CEC). Voting is expected on September 20, 2026.

Background

United Russia won the 2021 election with 49.8% of the vote, taking 324 seats. Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia no later than 20 September 2026, with 450 seats in the State Duma at stake. Half of the seats are elected by party-list proportional representation with a 5% electoral threshold, while the other half are elected in single-member constituencies by first-past-the-post voting.

Considerations

In April 2025, the Central Election Commission introduced a new map of 225 constituencies, with constituencies created for the first time in four Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine. United Russia currently holds 314 seats (70% of the Duma), indicating seat changes since 2021 due to defections or deaths of deputies.

This description was generated by AI.