Will Altos Labs trial an anti-aging intervention in humans by 2030? | Manifold

Will Altos Labs trial an anti-aging intervention in humans by 2030?

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This resolves to "YES" if this Metaculus question https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9592/altos-labs-trials-an-anti-aging-intervention/ resolves to a date before January 1st, 2030 UTC.

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Status check, October 2026: the Metaculus question this resolves on now has a community median of August 2030 (range mid-2028 to 2033, 20 forecasters), which is after this market's 1 January 2030 cutoff, while this market sits at 59%. Altos hired Joan Mannick as Chief Medical Officer in August 2025, its first clinical leader, but no Altos-sponsored study is listed on ClinicalTrials.gov as of today. The first partial-reprogramming therapy to reach people is Life Biosciences' ER-100, first dosed in June 2026 for glaucoma and NAION under an IND cleared in January 2026, a disease indication rather than an aging one. For comparison, the only regulator that has accepted lifespan extension as an indication did so for dog drugs (mine): /w0lph/which-species-will-get-the-first-re

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