Will there be a Manifest in the first half of 2024?
20
336
463
Jul 1
92%
chance

Formally this means if there is one before the end of June.

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OP unresponsive to ping, going to re-open for trading. OP can come re-resolve if he disagrees.

@Joshua plesse re-close it and ask another mod to help us out here. I don’t think anyone can wear a trader hat and a mod hat in the same market and I don’t appreciate having my argument summarily overruled.

@ClubmasterTransparent I mean I have 1 mana in this market right now, I actually don't have any bias. I already sold before it resolved. Also Austin agreed and it's his website lol

@ClubmasterTransparent I think that this market obviously pertains to a Manifold-organised Manifest, not any event with that name. OP should be the final judge, of course.
I held this opinion before checking to see whether my bot held shares; turns out it holds NO, so I actually benefited from this re-opening, for what that's worth.

@Joshua and @NcyRocks Let’s try an analogy. I go on ETrade intending to buy 10 shares of Synchrony Bank but mistakenly buy 10 shares of Synchronoss Technologies instead at $10. I put a sell limit order on it at $20 and go to bed. I wake up to find Synchronoss shot up to $21 and triggered the sell order and now I have $100 profit in cash. I’m not obligated now to try and send it back to ETrade or Synchronoss shareholders or give it to charity. It makes no sense to me to insist this market reopen because a couple people at Manifold think “Manifest” should only mean their Manifest and it’s worth overruling OP over this.

Also thanks for letting me know @Austin owns the site.

@ClubmasterTransparent I still think OP meant a Manifold-organised Manifest (partially because all 3 groups that it's in are about that event), and it's not clear to me that OP understood what you meant when you said that a Manifest happened. I think that they'll keep the market open after learning that the one you're referring to wasn't affiliated with Manifold.

@RahulShah Your input would be helpful here. Did you know that manife.st isn't the Manifest run by Manifold?

@NcyRocks I will go with whatever OP says. This is one dead-beaten horse.

And nobody told me about it!? Feeling left out.

@Joshua i was serious! Where does it say it has to be specifically a Manifold Manifest?

@ClubmasterTransparent my brother in Christ, we should not need markets like this to have a whole paragraph of definitions in the description or else interpret the title as broadly as possible.

I think everyone betting was doing so with the understanding that this was asking about the Manifold conference last year, not any unrelated event with the same name.

@Joshua Betting against the bubble mind isn’t just a valid strategy, it should be encouraged.. it’s not like I went around wrecking every single market I could find about Manifest. I googled, top result was what looks to be a legit, established, and possibly copyrighted Manifest, then I bet on it. If everyone else just assumed any random newbie would know about Manifold inside baseball, they were silly. I deserve all my mana here. Just like the mana I earned betting against Sam Altman as Time Person Of The Year.

@RahulShah that guy telling you to resolve yes was either trolling or mistaken. Can I re-open this question?

@Joshua agreed that this ought to be unresolved, as the intent was "Manifold - sponsored event"

@Austin your assumption was “Manifold sponsored event.” You could have googled it. Instead you are griping because I did.

@ClubmasterTransparent Austin and I are the people with the biggest profit in the market my dude. We just shouldn't have it yet 😅

@Joshua I see that. What I don’t see is why you are begrudging me my 26 mana and insisting it’s this other Manifest that’s “random” not yours, and “everyone thought like me” so therefore the only way to think about it is “everyone’s” way. I doubt anyone at this other Manifest has heard of Manifold let alone Manifold’s Manifest. I bet they went all weekend without ever hearing the word “rationalussy.”

@Joshua Very legit Manifest

Uhhh that was not a Manifold Manifest, just another random event called Manifest.

@RahulShah I know a lot of things happened over the weekend. But one of those things was the below-referenced Manifest. It has now happened. Historical fact. In rear-view mirror. Please resolve Yes.

@RahulShah A Manifest has happened this weekend. Please resolve to Yes.

Resolve please. A Manifest happened today.

https://manife.st/

predicts YES

Let's goooo

bought Ṁ175 of YES

(we've penciled in June 7-9)

@Austin I'd greatly appreciate knowing how likely that is, seeing as I'd like to book plane tickets ASAP: /NcyRocks/will-manifest-2024-happen-in-sf-fro

bought Ṁ4 of YES

Why do you say it's the end of May rather than the end of June?

predicts NO

@dph121 Oops I messed up the halfway point, I will change it to end of June, but it will not change again.

bought Ṁ0 of YES

@RahulShah It's still set to May 30.

@ClubmasterTransparent I've changed it, seeing as @RahulShah clearly expressed intent to do so. It seems that a lot of people have trouble finding how to do it; you just need to click on the date.

predicts NO