A current or former OpenAI CEO will attend

'attend':8 'ceo':6 'current':2 'former':4 'openai':5

Someone will make at least 10,000 mana they wouldn't have made if they didn't attend

'000':7 '10':6 'attend':18 'didn':16 'least':5 'made':13 'make':3 'mana':8 'someon':1 'wouldn':10

'1':3 'episod':4 'least':2 'live':7 'manifold':6

'2':3 'episod':4 'least':2 'live':7 'manifold':6

Someone makes a new meme shirt to follow up "Robin Handsome"

'follow':8 'handsom':11 'make':2 'meme':5 'new':4 'robin':10 'shirt':6 'someon':1

Someone walks 50,000 steps in one day while attending the conference

'000':4 '50':3 'attend':10 'confer':12 'day':8 'one':7 'someon':1 'step':5 'walk':2

'chris':5 'fli':2 'someon':1 'strutheo':6

at least three children present in one day

'children':4 'day':8 'least':2 'one':7 'present':5 'three':3

A guest of honor is announced, then it turns out they can't make it, then it turns out they can make it after all

'announc':6 'guest':2 'honor':4 'make':14,22 'turn':9,18

Manifold site outage happens during the conference 

'confer':7 'happen':4 'manifold':1 'outag':3 'site':2

Major US presidential election news breaks

'break':6 'elect':4 'major':1 'news':5 'presidenti':3 'us':2

Users @NcyRocks and @NathanpmYoung attend and recreate the Spider-Man meme

'attend':5 'man':11 'meme':12 'nathanpmyoung':4 'ncyrock':2 'recreat':7 'spider':10 'spider-man':9 'user':1

Manifold launches a new feature during the conference 

'confer':8 'featur':5 'launch':2 'manifold':1 'new':4

Manifold.love friend version created just for conference attendees 

'attende':8 'confer':7 'creat':4 'friend':2 'manifold.love':1 'version':3

Someone wears a full body fursuit publicly 

'bodi':5 'full':4 'fursuit':6 'public':7 'someon':1 'wear':2

A crown in given to the attendee with the highest all time profit

'attende':7 'crown':2 'given':4 'highest':10 'profit':13 'time':12

Someone gets a manifold crane logo tattoo

'crane':5 'get':2 'logo':6 'manifold':4 'someon':1 'tattoo':7

Someone will sneak in a mid-sized inflatable (min 3’x3’x3’)

'3':11 'inflat':9 'mid':7 'mid-siz':6 'min':10 'size':8 'sneak':3 'someon':1 'x3':12,13

Presenter goes to use a whiteboard but all of the markers are bad/don’t work 

'bad/don':13 'goe':2 'marker':11 'present':1 'use':4 'whiteboard':6 'work':15

'20':3 'karaok':7 'least':2 'peopl':4 'sing':5

'2':7 'live':4 'min':6 'music':5 'peopl':8

Aella will attend with Bet on Love winner

'aella':1 'attend':3 'bet':5 'love':7 'winner':8

Polymarket (the company) will "out meme" manifold (the company)

'compani':3,9 'manifold':7 'meme':6 'polymarket':1

There will be a "freeze flashmob" with at least 15 participants 

'15':10 'flashmob':6 'freez':5 'least':9 'particip':11

Someone will be wearing an apple vision pro while talking to a group of people

'appl':6 'group':13 'peopl':15 'pro':8 'someon':1 'talk':10 'vision':7 'wear':4

Nerf gun battle (>= 5 gun wielding participants) 

'5':4 'battl':3 'gun':2,5 'nerf':1 'particip':7 'wield':6

Someone will be in undercover cosplay, where they will be in costume of a character but no one will notice the first day with a dramatic reveal on the second day of who they really are

'charact':15 'cosplay':6 'costum':12 'day':23,31 'dramat':26 'first':22 'notic':20 'one':18 'realli':35 'reveal':27 'second':30 'someon':1 'undercov':5

'100':5 'digit':6 'pi':3 'recit':2 'someon':1

presenter will break into song during their talk

Full-size cardboard cutout of manifold celebrity is available to take pictures with

'avail':10 'cardboard':4 'celebr':8 'cutout':5 'full':2 'full-siz':1 'manifold':7 'pictur':13 'size':3 'take':12

An action that most people would prefer not happen (eg pee in ball pit) will happen because of market incentives 

'action':2 'ball':13 'eg':10 'happen':9,16 'incent':20 'market':19 'pee':11 'peopl':5 'pit':14 'prefer':7 'would':6

'combat':3 'fake':5 'play':2 'role':1 'sword':6

Proofnik’s are mischievous little imps (eg bringing in a ball pit)

'ball':11 'bring':8 'eg':7 'imp':6 'littl':5 'mischiev':4 'pit':12 'proofnik':1

'20':1 'glow':4 'peopl':2 'stick':5 'wear':3

A serious marriage proposal at the conference 

'confer':7 'marriag':3 'propos':4 'serious':2

'ai':7 'human':6 'pin':8 'someon':1 'wear':4

User @NathanpmYoung challenges someone to a rap battle 

'battl':8 'challeng':3 'nathanpmyoung':2 'rap':7 'someon':4 'user':1

At least twenty guests will reattend (not speakers or staff)

'guest':4 'least':2 'reattend':6 'speaker':8 'staff':10 'twenti':3

There will be a "vindication" event where doubters will be mocked by underdogs who ended up winning (ie LK-99, or other big surprising markets)

'-99':20 'big':23 'doubter':8 'end':15 'event':6 'ie':18 'lk':19 'market':25 'mock':11 'surpris':24 'underdog':13 'vindic':5 'win':17

Will our nametags have our icons so people can find each other easily?

'easili':13 'find':10 'icon':6 'nametag':3 'peopl':8

There is an option to have your badge show your total profit and/or number of unique traders

'and/or':13 'badg':8 'number':14 'option':4 'profit':12 'show':9 'total':11 'trader':17 'uniqu':16

Will 7+ attendees perform the "Dark Manifold Ritual"

'7':2 'attende':3 'dark':6 'manifold':7 'perform':4 'ritual':8

Two people wearing apple vision pros talk to each other

'appl':4 'peopl':2 'pros':6 'talk':7 'two':1 'vision':5 'wear':3

A market created during Manifest has 400+ traders by the end of Manifest

'400':7 'creat':3 'end':11 'manifest':5,13 'market':2 'trader':8

someone challenges @NathanpmYoung to a rap battle

'battl':7 'challeng':2 'nathanpmyoung':3 'rap':6 'someon':1

'5':1 'attend':6 'page':5 'peopl':2 'wikipedia':4

Over 2 million trading volume on a single Manifest-related market by the end of Manifest

'2':2 'end':15 'manifest':10,17 'manifest-rel':9 'market':12 'million':3 'relat':11 'singl':8 'trade':4 'volum':5

'carter':2 'debat':3 'destini':4 'jimmi':1

New once in a century pandemic starts during or immediately before conference 

'centuri':5 'confer':12 'immedi':10 'new':1 'pandem':6 'start':7

Guest speaker quotes a song by The Bloodhound Gang

'bloodhound':8 'gang':9 'guest':1 'quot':3 'song':5 'speaker':2

At least one attendee successfully convinces @Joshua that they were a cast member on The Wire (whether that is true or not)

'attende':4 'cast':12 'convinc':6 'joshua':7 'least':2 'member':13 'one':3 'success':5 'true':20 'whether':17 'wire':16

User @Joshua will meet (at least one) wizard

'joshua':2 'least':6 'meet':4 'one':7 'user':1 'wizard':8

I'll be able to assemble a minyan for either speed-davening Friday night or Saturday morning

'abl':4 'assembl':6 'daven':13 'either':10 'friday':14 'll':2 'minyan':8 'morn':18 'night':15 'saturday':17 'speed':12 'speed-daven':11

There will be soup made according to @Stralor's recipe https://manifold.markets/shankypanky/will-stralor-send-me-a-recipe-for-a

'/shankypanky/will-stralor-send-me-a-recipe-for-a':13 'accord':6 'made':5 'manifold.markets':12 'manifold.markets/shankypanky/will-stralor-send-me-a-recipe-for-a':11 'recip':10 'soup':4 'stralor':8

Interaction between at least 4 silly geese (vibes-based, resolves at @Joshua's discretion)

'4':5 'base':10 'discret':15 'gees':7 'interact':1 'joshua':13 'least':4 'resolv':11 'silli':6 'vibe':9 'vibes-bas':8

Someone rides a Unicycle and does some kind of trick

'kind':8 'ride':2 'someon':1 'trick':10 'unicycl':4

Someone gets infected with Lumina probiotic (BCS3-L1) developed by Lantern Bioworks

'bcs3':8 'bcs3-l1':7 'biowork':13 'develop':10 'get':2 'infect':3 'l1':9 'lantern':12 'lumina':5 'probiot':6 'someon':1

Will anyone be able to spin a top more than ten minutes? One real try per person

'abl':4 'anyon':2 'minut':12 'one':13 'per':16 'person':17 'real':14 'spin':6 'ten':11 'top':8 'tri':15

'fursuit':5 'partial':4 'public':6 'someon':1 'wear':2

An action that most people would prefer not happen will happen specifically because of market incentives from this option, or the previous option this one is based on (the one submitted by @Nikos ).

'action':2 'base':27 'happen':9,11 'incent':16 'market':15 'niko':33 'one':25,30 'option':19,23 'peopl':5 'prefer':7 'previous':22 'specif':12 'submit':31 'would':6

Somebody wears something that causes an argument over whether or not it counts as a fursuit

'argument':7 'caus':5 'count':13 'fursuit':16 'somebodi':1 'someth':3 'wear':2 'whether':9

There will be a plant that glows in the dark

A new product or startup will be announced by an attendee

'announc':8 'attende':11 'new':2 'product':3 'startup':5

Multiple people bring/buy/sell plushies related to the Effective Altruism, Rationality/LessWrong, SlateStarCodex/AstralCodexTen, or Manifold communities e.g. plush shoggoth

'altruism':9 'bring/buy/sell':3 'communiti':14 'e.g':15 'effect':8 'manifold':13 'multipl':1 'peopl':2 'plush':16 'plushi':4 'rationality/lesswrong':10 'relat':5 'shoggoth':17 'slatestarcodex/astralcodexten':11

At least one Juggalo in full make-up is present for any amount of time

'amount':14 'full':6 'juggalo':4 'least':2 'make':8 'make-up':7 'one':3 'present':11 'time':16

Grey goo / nanoweapon X-risk is discussed by a speaker

'discuss':8 'goo':2 'grey':1 'nanoweapon':3 'risk':6 'speaker':11 'x':5 'x-risk':4

A conspicuous orb is held by at least three people simultaneously

'conspicu':2 'held':5 'least':8 'orb':3 'peopl':10 'simultan':11 'three':9

A group of five or more people break into song

'break':8 'five':4 'group':2 'peopl':7 'song':10

This market hits second place in 24 hour volume (screenshot)

'24':7 'hit':3 'hour':8 'market':2 'place':5 'screenshot':10 'second':4 'volum':9

Physical spice (seasoning, hot sauce, whatever) is used by a speaker to symbolize or represent Spice from Manifold

'hot':4 'manifold':18 'physic':1 'repres':15 'sauc':5 'season':3 'speaker':11 'spice':2,16 'symbol':13 'use':8 'whatev':6

Manifest 2024 will take place June 7th to June 9th in Berkely California. This market is for prop bets about the event! Note that all bets are about the conference itself and not the summer camp.

I intend to attend, and I'll resolve everything I can. But any staff or mods are welcome to resolve any options as well, as prop bet markets are hard for any one person to manage.

Market close will be extended as necessarily if the dates change.

For markets about who will attend, I've made this market:

There's also this for just special guests: