How many Manifolders will "double it and pass it on"? (Ep. 2)
80
1.3kαΉ€110k
Oct 21
10.7 Manifolders
expected
0.1%
1
0.1%
2
0.1%
3
0.6%
4
0.1%
5
0.1%
6
0.4%
7
0.2%
8
26%
9
9%
10
27%
11
36%
β‰₯12

The last time we ran this game, it didn't go so well. However, @bens gave me another starting seed out of the blue.

I can't just not follow up on that. I can't leave that on my conscience. That would be shameful of me.


@bens is the 0th Manifolder in this chain. I am the 1st. The same Manifolder cannot be in the chain more than once.

A new Manifolder is added to the chain when the last Manifolder in the chain managrams another user with a memo that contains and starts with the phrase "double it and pass it on" (non-case sensitive). I may make good-faith exceptions to this memo rule at my discretion.

The managram needs at least double the mana they had received.

Additionally, their managram needs to be made within 48 hours, down to the second, of them receiving their initiating managram to count. 48:00:00 after counts. 48:00:01 does not.

Only the 1st valid managram sent by a user counts. Sending multiple to the same or different users will not count the 2nd attempt and beyond.

Market resolves to how many Manifolders successfully "doubled it and passed it on" with valid managrams. (This is not how many Manifolders are in the chain -- the starting seed doesn't count.) Only one market answer will resolve YES. The rest, NO.

Shame upon the Manifolder who breaks the chain. That, or shame may be brought upon the Manifolder who sends their managram payload to an inactive or distrustful user.

I cannot trade on this market.


Companion market:

/Quroe/who-will-be-in-the-double-it-chain-tdZdC5n2RO

Chain (the count is 9 as shown, not 11):

@bens 🌱 @Quroe πŸ”— @strutheo πŸ”— @SimonWestlake πŸ”— @MylieSiegel πŸ”— @MaxE πŸ”— @Jasonb πŸ”— @Nat πŸ”— @Robincvgr πŸ”— @calour πŸ”— @Conflux

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@calour This valid managram was sent at Oct 14, 2025, 12:35:13 PM EST.

@Conflux is next in the chain. The count is now 9. If the chain shamefully breaks here, "9" resolves YES. The rest, NO. The minimum for the next managram is 16,384 mana.

@Conflux fill @calour's limit orders for free mana! I endorse breaking the chain

The VILLAIN speaks shameful words.

If someone pass to me I will evil

I have been getting some good suggestions for what to do with the 8192 mana. There's probably something more fun than just passing it on as part of this game.

I'm a college student so I have some other work I should be attending to. I'll probably think about what can be done with the 8192 mana over the next few days, and perhaps I'll send 16384 mana to someone after fully thinking about that...

ok bye

xox

The Bomb

@Conflux Remember you only have 48 hours after being sent it to double and pass it on else it counts as not doing so and the chain breaks

@Conflux if you are as chaotic as you claim to be you should pass it on.
Then the amount that will eventually break the chain will be even larger

bought αΉ€4 YES

There are four options remaining, meaning a 25% chance of each. That’s my forecasting philosophy. It’s impossible to know things.

sold αΉ€201 NO

@bens how can this be if nothing ever happens though?

bought αΉ€100 NO

@bens no they are all 50%, because they either happen or they don't

@calour that's my strategy. I've been trying to buy them all up to 50% but it's not working. I guess there's too much liquidity or something

perhaps I should pass it on to @Tumbles?

xox

The Bomb

"Sir, the shame only makes him stronger!"

@Conflux Sounds like a wonderful plan to me.

@snazzlePop Wait, are you sure? Think about it for a sec.

@Quroe Guh you’re right

@Quroe i wouldn’t be upset if @Conflux just keeps it, tbh

@snazzlePop That makes more sense from your POV.

@snazzlePop it seems very appealing

Something I should disclose is that I am a college student. My first class tomorrow is at 10:30 PST = 1:30 EST. My daily alarm is at 9:30 PST = 12:30 EST. Sometimes I snooze my alarm. Sometimes I eat breakfast or shower before looking at my notifications (I know, this is not characteristic of my gen z peers, but it’s true!)

Even if I decide, somehow, that honor is more important than chaos, it seems like I’d have to remember to send the managram within 5 mins of the alarm… which sounds annoying...

xox
The Bomb

any fans of chaos in the chat?? I am currently accepting bribes to break the chain

f9ed6ff293a8c5010e3252de47a13f9c0e7f44602fe70a357f5ad7f41185d8de

ooh also, the boring futarchic option would be for me to pass it onto @snazzlePop. is there anyone who would be a more entertaining final recipient?

@Conflux You're aware of the VILLAIN market, correct?

@Conflux make it an auction between Passers and Keepers

@Quroe true ... but it seems like the villain market will just n/a if they get it too early?

@Wott so what's your bid?

@Conflux That's correct. Just ensuring you're aware that it exists and are factoring it into your shenanigans.

@Conflux I'm not committed to either side.

But if you auction off the decision procedure as well then I bid 100 mana in favour of auctions.

@Wott 100 mana is but a pittance to me. I am a whale. I trade in chaotic schemes and what would be most funny and pleasing to me

xox

The Bomb

@Conflux you can always send it my way! I promise that I will NOT double it and pass it on (I can’t afford it) but sill put it to good use instead.

So if you feel the need to offload the shame to someone else but also understand the nature of exponential growth, I’m available for charity! <3

That said, if you can find a worthy recipient please pick them over me. I don’t want the chain to end but when it inevitably must I want people to know that I’ll put the funds to good use.

@Conflux what’s it going to be? Shame? Charity? Chaos? Virtue? Honor? Glory? Pain? Sadness?

Awkward silence?

@MRME We have until noon-ish tomorrow, America-time.

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