🇺🇸🇮🇷 American boots on the ground in Iran by the end of Trump's term?

Ṁ100Ṁ1.6k

2029

95%

chance

ALL

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by the end of President Donald Trump's term on January 20, 2029, there is credible evidence of U.S. military personnel being deployed on Iranian soil. Acceptable sources for verification include official statements from the U.S. Department of Defense, reputable news organizations, or other authoritative reports confirming such deployment. If no such evidence is available by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No".

Update 2025-06-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that for a YES resolution, the U.S. military personnel must be fighting on the ground.
- Spies or CIA agents will not be counted.
- The creator noted that previous U.S. interventions in Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan are examples that would have resolved to YES.

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this should resolve yes

Brian it looks like they already sent 200 Special Forces for no reason to go get uranium that's buried 300 f****** feet under the ground. That definitely fulfills the condition no doubt whether it's 200 or whether it's a thousand.

200 special operations were in the iran rescue. They were on the ground operating a forward base from which 6 choppers with about 4 people per chopper were operating. Teams on the ground running refueling and rearmings from the base. Three Dash 8 used to recover everyone after first two C130 got stuck. 6 chopper teams flying ten times per day each. With support teams coordinating.

Regular forces or any military personnel?

Deployed or would 'We thought we were on the Iraqi side of the border honest!' count as YES?

CIA?

@PaulBenjaminPhotographer regular forces or any military personnel that is fighting on the ground of Iran, of course you can not count a spy or CIA agent...
I think the meaning of the market is very clear. If we consider previous cases like Iraq, Libya or Afghanistan, all of the three would solve YES