https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_Israeli_annexation_of_the_West_Bank

It clearly has not happened yet. Israel has not proclaimed sovereignty.

@nathanwei Israel has approved settlements through official channels.

@BrunoJ Have they proclaimed sovereignty over any new territory? Is your claim that Israel proclaims sovereignty exactly over the parts of Area C where there are settlements?

@BrunoJ The status regarding sovereignty of those areas hasn't changed. They have not been incorporated into Israel proper under Israeli law. The [re]construction of residential areas has nothing to do with whether annexation has occurred. Annexation does not require settlement construction, and settlement construction doesn't create a proclamation of sovereignty.

https://chatgpt.com/share/683baa77-6668-8009-81b3-3950f4f1f31f

@Bayesian GPT is reliable here.

@nathanwei "formally" is doing a lot of heavy work here.

@nathanwei https://chatgpt.com/share/683bb448-3e60-8002-884b-cbde6f4347b8

@BrunoJ Obviously doesn’t count. “A step towards de facto annexation” does not count come on.

@nathanwei Is the Ukraine war a war?

@BrunoJ Yes, but this is a false equivalence. Annexation is a legal term.

@BrunoJ How much of the West Bank has Israel annexed so far? It's just East Jerusalem.

@BrunoJ Anyway, read the market description.

"The market resolves YES if through some official channel, Israel proclaims its sovereignty over territory of the West Bank hitherto outside its domain, before 2026."

Has Israel proclaimed sovereignty? No they have not. To use your dumb analogy, the market was "Russia declares war on Ukraine" then how would it resolve?

@nathanwei

https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/annexation

@BrunoJ Hasn't Israel annexed all of Area C already then if you use that definition? Is this new?

"The market resolves YES if through some official channel, Israel proclaims its sovereignty over territory of the West Bank hitherto outside its domain, before 2026."

Has Israel proclaimed sovereignty?

@nathanwei No need to be rude. Is the official approval of settlements not an official act?

@BrunoJ Of course it is. Is Area C "hithero outside of its domain"? Under Oslo Israel already fully controls Area C. If this is your definition of "annexation", then Area C already has been annexed.

@BrunoJ Has Israel proclaimed its sovereignty? No. Israel does not claim sovereignty in Area C. Certainly it's not true that they claim sovereignty on the parts of Area C with the settlements and not the other parts. Huh?

@BrunoJ The Ukraine war is a war, but Russia didn’t issue a formal declaration. This is tough to call an annexation because 1. Generally the mechanisms by which settlements expand are by land purchases and such, not by forcibly expelling any current occupants, 2. Israel has explicitly annexed land before (East Jerusalem) and it didn’t look like this.

"We are being blessed with the opportunity, thank God, of seeing an expansion of the borders of the land of Israel, on all fronts," he said. "We are being blessed with the opportunity to blot out the seed of Amalek, a process which is intensifying."

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/israel-west-bank-settlements-1.7547426

The second most powerful person in the Israeli government is speaking of current events as an expansion of the borders of Israel.

@BrunoJ Since when is Smotrich the second most powerful person in the government? That would be Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Justice Yariv Levin. Smotrich is the Finance Minister.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty-seventh_government_of_Israel#Ministers

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1j5954edlno

Is this not enough for a YES resolution?

@BrunoJ it seems potentially like it should be enough, I will look into it

if anyone thinks it should not count, please let me know why you think that @traders

@Bayesian The occupied parts of the West Bank are not technically annexed by Israel.

@Qoiuoiuoiu Why not?

@Bayesian did israel officially say they were "annexing" the new portion of the west bank? I think their "official" argument for the settlements is the "sovereign vacuum" argument or something like that.

@Qoiuoiuoiu If they claim sovereignty over an area of the west bank itherto outside their domain, that would meet the definition of annexation used in this market, whether they stated the annexation part outright or not, I think? Is the official argument you’re referring to effectively saying the west bank territory is not outside their domain?

@Bayesian Of course it doesn’t count. Settlement expansion is not annexation. They have only annexed East Jerusalem.

It isn't obvious to me. Could you explain why this settlement expansion is not an annexation? is it because they are not claiming sovereignty over the area they are settling, or some other reason?

@nathanwei It's a state-backed land grab, i.e. an annexation. Of course Israel isn't going to call it that, but I don't see how that matters.

@BrunoJ Of course it matters. This isn’t what I understood the market to be on. This is in Area C yes?

@nathanwei By your logic, the Ukraine war isn't a war, because Russia calls it a "special military operation"?

@Bayesian Yes they aren’t claiming sovereignty and just are settling there. Ariel hasn’t been annexed yet.

@nathanwei Oh please. They are "just settling"? What does that even mean? They are permanently establishing themselves there. It's a land grab backed by the state.

@BrunoJ No war is different from annexation. The definition of annexation is a country explicitly says we have annexed this territory. Otherwise it is not annexation. Turkey has not annexed Northern Cyprus. Russia has not annexed South Ostessia. Annexation has a specific meaning.

The definition of war isn’t when a country has declared the war.

By “just settling” I mean it’s not an annexation. The settlements have not been annexed other than East Jerusalem.

@Bayesian If we're talking about territory that is currently Area C (which I'm assuming, though I'm not sure because the BBC article carefully doesn't mention it), I don't see how building settlements in that area could count as annexation, given that it's already theoretically under Israeli control. (Sure, it might make eventual peaceful resolution of the situation more or less difficult, but I can't really read it as annexation given that it's already in Israeli control.)

@nathanwei "The definition of annexation is a country explicitly says we have annexed this territory". Where does this self-referential definition come from? How is it different from Russia saying they're not at war because they haven't declared war?

@nathanwei so would Israel officials agree that the land those west bank settlements occupy is west bank sovereign land, or would they think they already had sovereignty over it? If i'm following this right, there's 4 possibilities: either the sovereignty was israel's before and after the settlements, or it was not israel's before and after the settlements, or it changed hands from not israel's to israel's, or it is ambiguous where sovereignty lies / they haven't proclaimed it one way or the other

@Bayesian Why's the market closed, by the way? I'd buy some more no now if I could.

@czrobertson because during deliberations where the market uncertainty is largely in how the market creator judges the evidence, i think it's better for trading to stop, so i closed the market

@Bayesian I disagree, but it's your market.

"I think that Israel is a few steps from declaring this area as Israeli territory. They believe that this period will never be coming back, this is one opportunity that they don't want to slip from their hands - that's why they're doing this now," Mr Ben Kimon told the BBC's Newshour programme.

This seems like a pretty good indication that they have not declared this area as Israeli territory. I'll leave the market open for now.