Will SCOTUS intervene directly in Texas redistricting before Nov 2026?
Will SCOTUS intervene directly in Texas redistricting before Nov 2026?
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100Ṁ502026
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This market resolves YES if the U.S. Supreme Court (SCOTUS) directly intervenes in Texas congressional redistricting before November 1, 2026. "Directly intervenes" includes:
Issuing a ruling on any Texas redistricting case (whether on merits, emergency appeals, or shadow docket orders).
Taking up (granting certiorari on) any redistricting case specific to Texas.
Issuing an injunction, stay, or order that materially alters Texas redistricting processes or maps before Nov 2026.
Denying certiorari or declining to hear a case does not count as intervention. Lower federal or state court rulings do not count unless SCOTUS directly acts.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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