Will there be a military drone-swarm to drone-swarm dogfight (packfight?) before July 2025?

Ṁ1kṀ9.2k

resolved Jul 4

Resolved

ALL

https://pca.st/episode/6c269e83-9392-44b7-8279-36ea379ed580?t=825.0

"That'll happen within one year, I guarantee it!"

Jim Rutt when interviewing Sergey Kuprienko, CEO and co-founder of Swarmer, about drone warfare in the Russo-Ukrainian War.

Anywhere in the world qualifies

Reach out to me if I forget to resolve

Market context

Technology

Politics

Technical AI Timelines

Ukraine-Russia war

Get

1,000

to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#	Trader	Total profit
1		Ṁ189
2		Ṁ102
3		Ṁ98
4		Ṁ97
5		Ṁ80

People are also trading

Fatal terrorist attack via drone swarm in the West before 2026-06-18?

14% chance

US Military drone strike in Mexico before EOY2026?

25% chance

US Military drone strike in Mexico before EOY2026?

12% chance

How much time left until drones completely replace soldiers (army, navy and air/space force) in at least one nation?

Will drones make humans with rifles obsolete until 2035?

21% chance

Will autonomous drone swarms kill over a thousand soldiers by the end of the Ukraine-Russia War?

36% chance

AI controlled drone dogfights will make a debut in Ukraine by end of war.

41% chance

Will the U.S. military be defeated by a rogue AI before 2035?

9% chance

Will there be a military operation to slow down AI development by the end of 2035?

32% chance

Will conflicts in the 2020s be called The Drone Wars?

Sort by:

bought Ṁ350 NO

Seems unlikely now... I'll try to reach out to Jim Ruth, to confirm the resolution

So what are the parameters (no , I'm not going to listen to the podcast)? At least 2 drones on each side? Armed with non-suicide weapons? How autonomous do they have to be? Details, details.

bought Ṁ50 NO

I too would like to see some resolution criteria

Right, right

I mean 4 on each side seems like the bare minimum for a "swarm"

Going by the vibes of the conversation, I would say, each pilot must control at least 2 drones

I'm not sure about why non-suicide weapons would matter, suicide weapons seem like a good choice for a swarm of drones? But I'm ready to hear you out if you think it's important