Will a drone swarm cause havoc in a major city by 2026?
20
1kṀ1288
Jan 2
29%
chance
3

Either a form of attack, a mishap during a entertainment display, or as part of a distraction campaign. Drones working together (3+ individual drones) cause havoc in some notable way.

Politics
Technology
AI
Science
Computing
Terrorism
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will conflicts in the 2020s be called The Drone Wars?
27% chance
Will there be a drone terror attack that kills at least 1 person in the United States before 2026?
33% chance
Fatal terrorist attack via drone swarm in the West before 2026-06-18?
18% chance
[Metaculus] Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?
17% chance
The Ministry for the Future Predictions: Will a Drone Swarm Assassinate a Public Figure by 2040?
75% chance
Will drones become restricted similarly to guns in the US by 2030?
23% chance
Will there be an attack on US civilians committed primarily with drones with >9 casualties before 2031?
56% chance
Will there be AI drone that replaces current FPV drones in 2025? (can go 10km without wire/being jammed)
49% chance
Dyson sphere/swarm before 2050?
12% chance
Will autonomous drone swarms kill over a thousand soldiers by the end of the Ukraine-Russia War?
42% chance
Sort by:

Does 3 unrelated people simultaneously ruining my enjoyment of a public space by doing ‘drone photography’ count?

Would russian/Ukrainian attacks count? Why /why not?

Somewhat misleading, a drone swarm is expected to be significantly larger than 3

predictedYES

@MaximeRiche Just setting a minimum - most likely it would be much bigger - a drone swarm is multiple drones working in communication to accomplish a goal

People are also trading

Will conflicts in the 2020s be called The Drone Wars?
27% chance
Will there be a drone terror attack that kills at least 1 person in the United States before 2026?
33% chance
Fatal terrorist attack via drone swarm in the West before 2026-06-18?
18% chance
[Metaculus] Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?
17% chance
The Ministry for the Future Predictions: Will a Drone Swarm Assassinate a Public Figure by 2040?
75% chance
Will drones become restricted similarly to guns in the US by 2030?
23% chance
Will there be an attack on US civilians committed primarily with drones with >9 casualties before 2031?
56% chance
Will there be AI drone that replaces current FPV drones in 2025? (can go 10km without wire/being jammed)
49% chance
Dyson sphere/swarm before 2050?
12% chance
Will autonomous drone swarms kill over a thousand soldiers by the end of the Ukraine-Russia War?
42% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy