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MANIFOLD
Will a drone swarm cause havoc in a major city by 2026?
31
Ṁ1kṀ5.4k
resolved Oct 2
Resolved
YES
44

Either a form of attack, a mishap during a entertainment display, or as part of a distraction campaign. Drones working together (3+ individual drones) cause havoc in some notable way.

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@GensingGenis why was this resolved to YES?

@dp9000 Nothing about the market implies they wouldn't count cities like Kyiv which have been swarmed as part of an ongoing war.

@Panfilo I think these are individually remote controlled or fly to their target independently, so I don't think they meet the definition "a drone swarm is multiple drones working in communication to accomplish a goal"

@dp9000 When a drone attack happens there's usually several scout drones in the air communicating between operators to confirm a target was hit, i think thats multiple.

@DanzoAlerantos I think "working in communication to accomplish a goal" implies that the drones are communicating with each other, not just with an operator.

@GensingGenis can you please resolve this market?

Isn't this a yes because of the Copenhagen and Oslo drone sightings that resulted in airport shutdowns?

Does 3 unrelated people simultaneously ruining my enjoyment of a public space by doing ‘drone photography’ count?

Would russian/Ukrainian attacks count? Why /why not?

@ElliotDavies This market feels pretty volatile to me until this gets clarified. But as written, they should count if there is no further detail given. Kyiv has been swarmed multiple times since market creation, but the creator was last active over a year ago. @GensingGenis

Somewhat misleading, a drone swarm is expected to be significantly larger than 3

predictedYES

@MaximeRiche Just setting a minimum - most likely it would be much bigger - a drone swarm is multiple drones working in communication to accomplish a goal