Will autonomous drone swarms kill over a thousand soldiers by the end of the Ukraine-Russia War?
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2040
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chance

I'll define the end of the war as either a negotiated peace agreement, the dissolution of the Ukrainian state or army, the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine, or general consensus among reputable journalism outlets that the war is over.

I'll define autonomous drone swarms by the following criteria

  • While they can be instructed by humans, the individual drones of the swarm have to act autonomously

  • A "swarm" has to include five or more drones acting in concert

  • A "drone" is an insect whose role it is to serve the hive's queen. I am not an entomologist so I am happy to receive feedback on this definition.

  • Kidding about that last one, I'll define a drone as a flying robot with copters as its propulsion device (although I still welcome a discussion about the role of bugs in hives)

Measurement might get tricky on this one. If there is legitimate dispute on the matter by the end of hostilities (credible estimates differ on whether the fatalities are above or below the threshold) I'll resolve this as N/A. If reports converge on a number above 1000, I'll resolve this market as Yes. Otherwise, this market resolves as No.

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