Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official ceasefire or peace agreement between Israel and Iran is publicly announced and takes effect before July 1, 2025. The announcement must come from the governments of both nations or be confirmed by reputable international organizations such as the United Nations. If no such agreement is in place by that date, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

As of June 21, 2025, Israel and Iran are engaged in active military conflict. On June 13, 2025, Israel initiated Operation Rising Lion, targeting Iran's nuclear facilities and military infrastructure. In response, Iran launched missile and drone attacks against Israeli targets. The conflict has resulted in significant casualties and heightened regional tensions. (apnews.com)

Considerations

Given the current intensity of hostilities and the absence of ongoing diplomatic negotiations, the likelihood of a ceasefire or peace agreement being established before July 1, 2025, appears low. Traders should monitor official communications from both governments and international bodies for any developments indicating a move toward de-escalation.