This market resolves YES if there is direct military conflict between Israeli and Egyptian forces before July 1st, 2025. Resolution criteria:

• Direct military engagement between Israeli and Egyptian forces

• Official declaration of war by either country against the other

• Military operations by one country in the other's territory without permission

Sources for resolution:

• Major international news outlets (Reuters, AP, AFP)

  Background

  Egypt and Israel have maintained peace since the 1979 Camp David Accords, though recent developments have raised concerns. Egypt has significantly increased its military presence in the Sinai Peninsula, including new airfields and tunnels. While both countries maintain official security coordination, Israeli observers have expressed concern about Egypt's military buildup potentially violating peace treaty restrictions.

  Resolution Criteria

  This market will resolve YES if any of the following occur before July 1st, 2025:

  • Direct military engagement between Israeli and Egyptian armed forces

  • Official declaration of war by either country against the other

  • Military operations by one country in the other's territory without explicit permission

  The market will resolve NO if none of these events occur before July 1st, 2025.

  Resolution will be based on:

  • Confirmation from major international news outlets (Reuters, AP, AFP)

  Edge cases:

  • Accidental exchanges of fire that are quickly resolved through diplomatic channels will NOT count as direct military conflict

  • Terrorist attacks or non-state actor violence, even if occurring in border regions, will NOT qualify

  • Military exercises, even if provocative, will NOT qualify unless they involve unauthorized territorial incursion

  Considerations

  While current tensions are elevated due to Egypt's military buildup in Sinai, both countries maintain diplomatic relations and security coordination. Any shift toward direct military conflict would represent a significant departure from over 40 years of peace following the Camp David Accords.