So far, for the time I've been on Manifold, there have been four markets that felt like sitewide events:
My perception of whether something feels like an event is mainly based on whether it receives a large number of traders and a high mana volume and is talked about by pretty much everyone active on the site for a while, to the point where it basically feels like that market is the main thing on the site for a short period of time. This is especially true if people say things like, "Oh, you weren't here for market X," to users who joined the site after the market resolved or stopped being as relevant.
1,000
3.00@Nadja_L was it the major speaker of house selection (sorry if wrong terminology, idk what it is) or was it the market that was the event of interest?
@firstuserhere Oh sorry, I should have linked the market. I'll edit it in my comment above. I was thinking the market on who will be the next speaker of the house.
@Nadja_L Now that it's concluded, I'm looking back on it, and I think it probably does qualify. It was very popular and the talk of the site for a while, it had an appropriate amount of chaos to give it a similar vibe to the other four, and there's even a retrospective on it now: https://marketwise.substack.com/p/speaker-election-interviewing-the
Would anyone object to a YES resolution based on this?
@JosephNoonan If the superconductor one counted, I think this one should too. Similarly a blockbuster unprecedented news event that people are trying to use markets to contextualize. Again, celebs like Nate Silver shouted it out on Twitter.
Number of traders was like 4x the spanking one, and it was the talk of the town for much longer, with multiple plot twists. Though I may be biased since I just bought a bunch of YES and also am a politics nerd so I would've been attentive to the Speaker market anyway.
@Sinclair Did not really feel like one to me. I heard about it a few times in the last couple of days, but it never felt like the main talk of the site, let alone something all-consuming. I think most of the talk was just drama about whether it should be marked NSFW or something.
@JustifieduseofFallibilism I thought so too at first but then I reasoned about it like this:
say these sitewide events are a poisson process, and that manifold has gained the ability to have sitewide events in the last year or so. Then there's been 4 sitewide events in the last year and there's about 1/3rd of the year left. So ~4/year. P(n > 0) = 1 - P(n = 0) = 1 - e^(-4/3) = 0.73 take that as your prior and then add in manifest coming up and vacation time for north america, I wouldn't think 80% is out of the question.
@zzlk Convincing, I always think the year is almost over but it's still got a while to go. Manifest plus new years eve probably make side wide event more likely.
I have a similar question
https://manifold.markets/wilkess/will-something-distinct-to-lk99-ach?r=d2lsa2Vzcw
Kind of tangential, but I didn't consider the AI letter market to be anywhere near as much of an "event" as the other three. It got a lot of attention after the fact, and it's definitely an interesting story, but the fact that it was unlisted meant that loads of people never saw it. I'm a very active Manifold user but it didn't really register for me until very late, possibly after it ended.
@CodeandSolder Hm, that one came close, but it didn't feel like it got as much attention as the other four.
@JosephNoonan more participants than AI risk, probably more impressions but cannot open the boost window on a closed market
@CodeandSolder It has more participants, but it's about more than just the number of participants. I didn't see that many people talking about it on Discord or on other parts of the site, except for the derivative markets.
@CodeandSolder Either way, it doesn't affect this market, though, since it has to be a market that becomes an event in the future, not a market that already is one.
@CodeandSolder makes sense that Ai risk ones had low participants because they were open for just a week and were unlisted on top of it. However the % of "core" manifold users who were involved was very high