Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?
resolved Sep 21

In my Big Kink Survey, I'm looking at young (19-26) people who picked the top 2 most liberal options (out of a 7-point political spectrum).

This group is 179,000 people.

Of this (young, liberal) group, did men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?

The question as presented in the survey:

*question: From the ages of 0-14, how often were you spanked as a form of discipline?

*tip: Spanking means striking the buttocks, with a hand or an implement such as a shoe or belt





Very regularly

(I selected which gender to ask about - like, vs 'women spanked more often than men' by flipping a coin)

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@Aella Maybe I'm missing something, but is there a version of the graphs where you show spanking but control for social class (not politics)? It seems more plausible to me that the effect is from your survey's women happening to have lower social class than that the effect is from women remembering their childhoods differently.

predicted NO

Social class correlates with being biologically male at 0.07, and is anticorrelated with spanking frequency at -0.17. So that's plausible.

predicted YES

hmmm, this was an odd one.

predicted YES
predicted YES

Well I for one have been spanked.

predicted YES
predicted YES
predicted YES

I’m really shocked by this

i considered locking my post behind a paid subscription but decided to not take advantage

bought Ṁ10,000 of NO


bought Ṁ400 of NO

@chrisjbillington Not sure if any regrets, tempted to say no.

The (proposed) mechanism is not what anyone here suggested, and as such the surprise could have gone either direction.

"Aella wouldn't have made this market if it wasn't surprising" remains the most compelling NO case in hindsight, but she also has done the exact opposite in another recent market - essentially posting it to defend a null hypothesis from those who would propose something else.

So probably no regrets. Interested if anyone thinks I should have any.

Edit: and enjoy my mana, NO betters! Well played.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@chrisjbillington I certainly regret not considering taking the insider information hypothesis more seriously.

It's a lesson I learn again and again.

bought Ṁ200 of YES

@chrisjbillington I think the main regret you should have is not asking why the market was shifting away from its earlier consensus to begin with, especially when just given a demonstration of how powerful market correcting power was with the new account spam earlier. The fact that you were even able to build up such a big position at a "good" price I think is a red flag.

yeah, I sold on jack betting no and lost 2.5k instead of 6.5k, and 2.5k is the kind of loss i'll be back up on this week, while if i consistently made 7.5k losses in this situation i would not make profit

predicted YES

@DanMan314 I felt the temptation to not fully correct myself, so discounted others' behaviour based on that. I think that still seems the most likely explanation - that it was FUD and downward price pressure caused by traders who never had a view on this market trying to exit after the mana printing ended.

Nobody here (other than the alts but perhaps not even) made as much mana as someone with insider info should have been able to make.

Do we think the alts were trading on insider info? And they stopped, the price in the last few hours was not set by them. And I discounted their behaviour as inexplicable and not worth trying to explain - feel like trying to make sense of that chaos would more likely lead to confusing myself than anything else.

bought Ṁ2,000 of NO

I didn't want to make more mana because I still think this should be non-predictive.

bought Ṁ0 of NO

would anyone like to buy bigly yes shares at 45%?

sold Ṁ19 of YES


should i keep dropping obscure hints or should i go focus on finishing up writing my blog post which will contain the answer

bought Ṁ3 of YES

@Aella listen to your poll plsss

bought Ṁ0 of YES

@Aella Chaos or resolution. No middle ground.

predicted YES

@Aella Close it publicly during Manifest!

predicted NO

@Sodra Does the manifest live poll replicate the survey data? This is the important question.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@dittopoop Yeah, I've finally got all my ducks in a row. I've carefully positioned myself to feel like a moron regardless of the outcome. Let's do this thing

edit: Yep, I'm a moron.