@Aella Maybe I'm missing something, but is there a version of the graphs where you show spanking but control for social class (not politics)? It seems more plausible to me that the effect is from your survey's women happening to have lower social class than that the effect is from women remembering their childhoods differently.

Social class correlates with being biologically male at 0.07, and is anticorrelated with spanking frequency at -0.17. So that's plausible.

hmmm, this was an odd one.

Well I for one have been spanked.

@JCE

hey no one actually linked the post. It's good!

https://aella.substack.com/p/women-remember-their-childhoods-differently

Women remember their childhoods differently?

Survey results, plus social class stuff

I’m really shocked by this

i considered locking my post behind a paid subscription but decided to not take advantage

dayum

@chrisjbillington Not sure if any regrets, tempted to say no.

The (proposed) mechanism is not what anyone here suggested, and as such the surprise could have gone either direction.

"Aella wouldn't have made this market if it wasn't surprising" remains the most compelling NO case in hindsight, but she also has done the exact opposite in another recent market - essentially posting it to defend a null hypothesis from those who would propose something else.

So probably no regrets. Interested if anyone thinks I should have any.

Edit: and enjoy my mana, NO betters! Well played.

@chrisjbillington I certainly regret not considering taking the insider information hypothesis more seriously.

It's a lesson I learn again and again.

@chrisjbillington I think the main regret you should have is not asking why the market was shifting away from its earlier consensus to begin with, especially when just given a demonstration of how powerful market correcting power was with the new account spam earlier. The fact that you were even able to build up such a big position at a "good" price I think is a red flag.

yeah, I sold on jack betting no and lost 2.5k instead of 6.5k, and 2.5k is the kind of loss i'll be back up on this week, while if i consistently made 7.5k losses in this situation i would not make profit

@DanMan314 I felt the temptation to not fully correct myself, so discounted others' behaviour based on that. I think that still seems the most likely explanation - that it was FUD and downward price pressure caused by traders who never had a view on this market trying to exit after the mana printing ended.

Nobody here (other than the alts but perhaps not even) made as much mana as someone with insider info should have been able to make.

Do we think the alts were trading on insider info? And they stopped, the price in the last few hours was not set by them. And I discounted their behaviour as inexplicable and not worth trying to explain - feel like trying to make sense of that chaos would more likely lead to confusing myself than anything else.

I didn't want to make more mana because I still think this should be non-predictive.

would anyone like to buy bigly yes shares at 45%?

lol

should i keep dropping obscure hints or should i go focus on finishing up writing my blog post which will contain the answer

@Aella listen to your poll plsss

@Aella Chaos or resolution. No middle ground.

@Aella Close it publicly during Manifest!

@Sodra Does the manifest live poll replicate the survey data? This is the important question.

@dittopoop Yeah, I've finally got all my ducks in a row. I've carefully positioned myself to feel like a moron regardless of the outcome. Let's do this thing

edit: Yep, I'm a moron.