Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if any sitting justice of the Supreme Court of the United States dies or officially vacates their seat (via retirement or resignation) on or before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time (ET).

The market will resolve to NO if all nine current sitting justices remain in active office through the end of 2026.

Key Definitions and Rules:

• Sitting Justices: The current nine justices are John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, Amy Coney Barrett, and Ketanji Brown Jackson.

• Resignation / Retirement: A justice must formally vacate their seat on or before the deadline. An announcement of a future resignation or retirement that is set to take effect after December 31, 2026, will not qualify for a "YES" resolution unless the actual departure from the seat is accelerated to occur before the end of 2026.

• Source of Truth: Resolution will be determined based on official announcements from the Supreme Court of the United States or definitive reporting from major credible news outlets (e.g., SCOTUSblog, Associated Press, Reuters).

Background

The Supreme Court of the United States consists of nine justices who receive lifetime appointments. Because there are no term limits or mandatory retirement ages for federal judges in the United States, vacancies arise only upon a justice's death, voluntary retirement, or resignation.

As of mid-2026, the oldest members of the current bench are Clarence Thomas (born 1948), Samuel Alito (born 1950), and Sonia Sotomayor (born 1954). Speculation regarding potential retirements frequently circulates around older justices, particularly during periods of shifting political control in the presidency and the Senate. This market tracks whether any vacancy will occur on the nation's highest court before the year 2027 begins.