According to a recent Reuters article, OpenAI has a model called Q* which is believed by some at the company to be a big step towards AGI. Researchers were reportedly impressed by its ability to solve math problems.

This market resolves YES if OpenAI is in fact in possession of a model that can consistently solve math problems that currently-released models like GPT-4 cannot and has aced math tests given to it by researchers. It would also resolve YES if the model solves math problems that current models can already solve, but does so with significantly fewer resources (e.g., less training data, less computation) and has aced tests by researchers.

To count, it must actually be the model referred to as Q* in the Reuters article, so it wouldn't count if OpenAI later makes a model with these capabilities, or if it happens coincidentally that OpenAI had a model with these capabilities, but none of Reuters' sources knew about it.

Q* doesn't have to actually be as big of a breakthrough in AI as the researchers think it is to count as being real - it just has to have some level of increased capability as described above. It also doesn't have to actually be related to Sam Altman's firing.

This resolves to YES/NO once there is clear and convincing evidence that Q* does/doesn't exist (and have the capabilities mentioned above). I will take discussion in the comments into account when determining whether there is enough evidence. If there is no clear and convincing evidence either way by the time this market closes, and it seems very unlikely that we will get more evidence, then I may resolve it to a probability based on how likely it seems to be (for this, I would take into account the market price, but I wouldn't just do resolves to MKT because that's a terrible idea). If it does still seem like we could get more evidence, I'll extend the closure date.