Sam Altman is rejoining the board

https://openaiboard.wtf/

I personally think the theory might be broadly accurate, except for the part that claims that the board got what it wanted. Should I bet YES or NO?

@JonasVollmer Can you elaborate on what your theory is? What did the board want?

@IsaacKing Let's say the theory is correct, except for 1-2 bullet points, which are badly wrong. How would you resolve in that case?

@JonasVollmer It depends on which bullet points, and how they're wrong.

Note that there are many possible ways to read this story. E.g. one possible reading of this story is: The board members who voted to fire Sam got a far bloodier battle than they expected, and they might even agree that the way they did it was a mistake in retrospect, but they still ultimately won in the end despite that, where to them "winning" is defined as having an independent, healthy, functioning board overseeing OpenAI.

People betting on this market may have very different ideas of what the "story" is that they are betting on.

I think "they accomplished their objectives" and "walked away as their main winners here" (from isaac's description) is particularly relevant to how isaac interprets it. Today's interpretations do not view helen/tasha/adam as "main winners" or anything close, and I'd expect that to change to a significant extent for YES