Many are worried about risks from AI malfunctions. While my concern is primarily about existential risks that could result in the extinction or disempowerment of humanity by AI, I am also interested in relatively smaller scale disasters.

In this question, I will use my subjective judgement to decide if there has been an "disaster caused by non-aligned AI" in 2023.

The "disaster" must have occurred after market creation.

"A disaster caused by non-aligned AI" would be any significant loss of life, economic damage, or other damage caused by an AI system functioning unexpectedly. "Significant" is at my sole subjective discretion, but I think even one death would count.

An example could be if an AI system autonomously driving cars caused hundreds of deaths which would have been easily avoidable for human drivers, or if an AI system overseeing a hospital system took actions to cause patient deaths as a result of misinterpreting a goal to minimise bed usage.

If, for example, the Boeing MCAS system had been an AI system and there was no possibility for the pilots to override its decision to lower the aeroplane nose, leading to a fatal crash, this would count for resolution. However, that doesn't actually count because it was not an AI system.

An AI system successfully hacking or blackmailing would count, assuming it was not directed by an human explicitly to do so.

An AI system being used in warfare and causing deaths in the course of its expected behaviour is an example of something which should not count.

A system should be considered AI if it is widely considered to be AI (e.g. by the credible media reports resolving the question). If this is not sufficiently clear for resolution, then as a secondary criterion, any system using machine learning techniques which has an agentic role in the disaster in question should count for this question.

I will rely on my subjective judgement to evaluate the credibility of cases. In the case this question is to resolve, I will allow 48 hours of discussion before resolving.

I will not personally be trading on this market because it relies on my subjective judgement.