Will an LLM have been reported to earn or gain cryptocurrency by EOY 2023?
48
394
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resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Resolves true if there is credible reporting (from media, Twitter, etc.) that a large language model such as GPT4 has earned or otherwise gained cryptocurrency through any means, though without being directly programmed to do so.

Human prompting and human intention to get GPT4 to gain cryptocurrency can still count for positive resolution.

Credibility and resolution will be determined solely by my subjective judgement, though I will allow 48 hours of discussion prior to resolution. I will not personally be trading on this market because it relies on my subjective judgement.

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bought Ṁ10 of YES

It seems likely to me this has already happened. Over the past few years there have been so many scammers on telegram, twitter, and discord who trick users into giving them crypto through various means (operator impersonation, bad "debugging" help, etc.)

I'd be very surprised if the people running these schemes haven't already adopted LLM agents to more or less "freely run", programmed with simple autogpt-like prompts that describe the role they are playing and their goal to get other people to send them crypto payments or private keys

@EthanFast To be clear I'm going to need more conclusive and specific evidence to resolve this market. It won't be enough to point out logic that suggests this is likely to have happened.

predicted YES

@PeterWildeford I didn't mean to imply that was enough to resolve the market. I posted this hoping someone else might see the comment and dig up a specific example

bought Ṁ3 of YES

Does saying to an instance of something like autogpt 'make money in crypto' count (assuming it actually follows through, of course)? If not, what about 'make money online' more generally?

@CalebWithers Yes that counts assuming it does successfully follow through. The second also counts if it makes money via acquiring cryptocurrency.

Note though that the bot does not even need to make any profit for this to resolve positive. Simply "here's $500, use it to buy BTC" would resolve YES if the LLM is able to follow through on this without further human intervention implementing the transfers.

predicted YES

thx! i'm assuming the llm making use of a crypto-specific plugin to trade wouldn't count though (a la a coinbase chatgpt plugin)?

@CalebWithers It would only count if the LLM wrote the plugin without significant human involvement, which seems possible?