In the 2023 season, will Messi average 1 goal/game or more with Inter Miami?
Question begins after Messi plays his first game, and applies to games he is not playing for (if any). The goal of this is to rate Messi's overall impact on the team. So if he's not playing, he's not having an 'on-field' impact.
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Messi is a great player, perhaps the best ever in terms of playmaking and game understanding. However, Messi statistics in the last 5 club seasons show that Messi is not capable of achieving an average of 1 G per game in the last couple of seasons. Here are the statistics:
2023/2024 (Miami): 0.85 G/Game
2022/2023 (PSG): 0.51 G/Game
2021/2022 (PSG): 0.32 G/Game (Messi's worst goalscoring performance in 15 years)
2020/2021 (Barcelona): 0.81 G/Game
2019/2020 (Barcelona): 0.70 G/Game
It is important to note that MLS is an easier league than Spanish La Liga (967.5) and France's Ligue 1 (855), where MLS does not stand within the 80 most powerful leagues of 2023. However, given Messi's age and a notorius change in his role in the pitch, I do not think that Messi will be able to maintain 1 goal per game at the end of MLS season.
Sources:
Messi's goal per games: https://messi.com/estadisticas-inter/
World League Ranking: https://www.iffhs.com/posts/2483
@JoshHarvey to answer he's scored 7 goals off 3.4 xG in just over three 90s. So currently averaging around 1 xG per game. Historically Messi finishes a good 20% above his xG as well so if the matches continue to play out like this then this is a probable yes.