When will the first major U.S. presidential candidate make AI safety part of their platform?
Basic
10
Ṁ4562101
2034
expected
1D
1W
1M
ALL
"Major" will be defined as having at least a 10% chance of winning the primary presidential election in a major American party (currently only Democratic and Republican), according to FiveThirtyEight or betting markets when/if it is not available; or being the presidential nominee of a major American party.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?
51% chance
Will a moderator ask about catastrophic AI risks in a US 2024 general presidential election debate?
2% chance
Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States?
2% chance
Will AI be among the top 5 most important issues for voters in the lead up to the 2028 election?
45% chance
Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States?
5% chance
Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (according to Manifold popular vote)
8% chance
Will the 2025 presidential Inaugural Address in the United States include any of these exact phrases related to AI?
59% chance
In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion, according to funding?
55% chance
Will any candidate accuse their competitor of "being an AI" in the 2028 election?
29% chance
In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?
41% chance