Will a parrot explain the risk from AI before 2026?
15
1kṀ17312026
10%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This resolves YES if I'm shown a video of (or see in person) a parrot explaining that AI capabilities research is dangerous.
Edit: A REAL PARROT GUYS
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Sort by:
@mariopasquato Looks like you can rent parrots for events. Maybe there is already someone with a gig on fiverr that lets you send them a message for the parrot to say
@EliTyre The AI risk skeptics keep comparing LLMs to parrots, so if even the parrots find AI concerning, I imagine that must be enough to win the skeptics over.
@IsaacKing a parrot parroting about the risk of AI does not mean the parrot understands what it’s saying, nor is it showing concern about AI.
Related questions
Related questions
Will Destiny discuss AI Safety before 2026?
71% chance
Will Trump repeatedly raise concerns about existential risk from AI before the end of 2025?
15% chance
Will >90% of Elon re/tweets/replies on 19 December 2025 be about AI risk?
7% chance
What AI safety incidents will occur in 2025?
Will humanity wipe out AI x-risk before 2030?
10% chance
Will someone commit terrorism against an AI lab by the end of 2025 for AI-safety related reasons?
20% chance
Will AI interpretability techniques reveal an AI to have been plotting to take over the world before 2028?
14% chance
Will I believe any AI system is conscious before 2027?
48% chance
Will AI xrisk seem to be handled seriously by the end of 2026?
24% chance
In 2050, will the general consensus among experts be that the concern over AI risk in the 2020s was justified?
75% chance