This is a duplicate of the market that resolved NO on 12/31/2024: https://manifold.markets/Jacy/will-ai-generate-a-decent-commercia

Note: This is an effort to make relatively objective, transparent Manifold markets that predict AI capabilities. I won't trade in these markets because there will inevitably be some subjectivity, and I'll try to be responsive with clarifications in the comments (which I will add to the market description). Feedback welcome.

Specifications:

1. By "decent," I mean that a serious large-sized company would plausibly pay market price to run it for at least 30 seconds in a normal TV context. Ideally, a company will actually run it, but it's okay if the commercial doesn't run but clearly could be (e.g., the company just puts it on YouTube but never pays for TV placement).

2. There is no restriction on the type of commercial. It can be funny, serious, animated, silent, abstract, etc. Ideally the YES case would be made by showing the AI-generated commercial alongside several comparable human commercials, but that's not required. The easiest examples I have in mind are perfume commercials.

3. The commercial should not merely succeed because an AI made it. It should be good enough to plausibly be aired if humans made it. Ideally, the commercial would run on TV before it's widely known to be AI-generated, but that seems unlikely and certainly isn't required.

4. By "generate," I mean the entire commercial should be produced without human intervention (e.g., collating AI clips, adding a soundtrack, adding logos), but humans can select the best AI-generated commercials. The AI system doesn't need to exclusively take text instructions as input, but other specific content should be limited to what's necessary (e.g., a logo, high-resolution images from multiple angles of the product being advertised). The commercial needs to match a real company (e.g., a real logo and product).

5. If enough details about how the video was made aren't publicly available, I'll take my best guess (i.e., over 50% chance it met each criterion). I will probably consult other AI researchers or engineers if this is contentious.

The spirit of this market (which will be used to resolve ambiguities that aren't resolved by explicit criteria) is whether the AI is capable enough to do all the different tasks it takes to produce a commercial, such as not just generating individual video shots but sequencing them together in a compelling way.

• Update 2025-12-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Humans can develop the idea, storyboard, and script for the commercial as long as the input to the AI system stays within the stated requirements (e.g., text instructions, logos, high-resolution product images). The AI does not need to autonomously generate these creative planning elements.

• Update 2025-12-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The McDonald's AI-generated Christmas commercial that was briefly aired does not qualify for resolution, as confirmed by the creator.