πŸ• Will AI Be Able to Gain a Much Broader Academic and Professional Understanding by the End of 2023?
Basic
25
αΉ€6281
resolved Jan 4
Resolved
NO

Preface:

Please read the preface for this type of market and other similar third-party validated AI markets here.

Third-Party Validated, Predictive Markets: AI Theme

Market Description

MMLU

Paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300

Resolution Criteria:

https://paperswithcode.com/sota/multi-task-language-understanding-on-mmlu

  • GPT4 tops the list at 86.4 currently.

  • We seem to have been gaining around 10 points per year from Jan 2022 until early 2023.

  • Scaling out about 1/4th of the year hypothetically we should be at 93.9 by the end of 2023 assuming continued linear growth.

  • However, the test might not happen by then, so assuming we get a test by end of October, that would be (0.583 years)*(10 points/year) = 5.83 additional points, + 86.4 = 92.2

  • If > 92.2 by end of year, this resolves as YES.

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New market for year posted at https://manifold.markets/PatrickDelaney/-will-ai-be-able-to-gain-a-much-bro ... still sitting at 86.4 for the year 2023 using GPT-4.

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