๐Ÿ• Will Any AI Effectively Achieve Higher than Human Level Reasoning Through Common Sense Questions, By 2024 End?
13
แน€380
2025
37%
chance

Resolves similar to: https://manifold.markets/PatrickDelaney/will-any-ai-effectively-achieve-sup-b8311d1c1eaa#zDZ5LXC7pABnADlQIbB8

However, if needed, will update to a more appropriate 2024 metric. Aim to have full market resolution criteria set by end of January 2024.

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You say "better than human" but the actual criterion is 99% accuracy, right? Separately what is the actual human expert performance? (I suspect it is well below 99% and you should probably update the title if that's the case).

@vluzko I thought I had checked this last year for a previous market but correct my title if I am wrong. Thanks

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