This market will use a similar resolution criteria to https://manifold.markets/PatrickDelaney/will-ai-be-able-to-gain-a-much-broa but updated for 2024. Resolution criteria may take into account new benchmarks. I should have the full resolution criteria in place by end of January 2024.

• Update 2025-10-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market resolves YES if the relevant metric exceeds 92.2 by the end of 2024 (based on 86.4 at end of 2023). The creator is verifying whether this threshold was met by the December 31st, 2024 deadline.

• Update 2025-10-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has determined the market resolves NO because the relevant metric threshold was not exceeded by the December 31st, 2024 deadline. Based on model timestamps, the threshold was not met until June 2025, which is after the market's resolution period.