In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?
Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States?
Before 2028, will any prediction market come up with a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk?
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
Will Biden sign an executive order primarily focused on AI in 2023?
Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025?
Will Tyler Cowen agree that an 'actual mathematical model' for AI X-Risk has been developed by October 15, 2023?
Will >$100M be invested in dedicated AI Alignment organizations in the next year as more people become aware of the risk we are facing by letting AI capabilities run ahead of safety?
Will Bostrom's "Superintelligence" exceed its current popularity peak before 2028?
Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?
Will there have been a noticeable sector-wide economic effect from a new AI technology by the end of 2023?
Will anyone very famous claim to have made an important life decision because an AI suggested it by the end of 2023?
In a year, will I think that risk of AI apocalypse is between 1 and 10%?
🐕 Will A.I. Be Able to Make Significantly Better, "Common Sense Judgements About What Happens Next," by End of 2023?
By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population?
Will AI replace over 50 million jobs by end of 2024?
I get down
Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?
Will Science's Top Breakthrough of the Year in 2023 be AI-related?
Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?
🐕 Will A.I. Get Significantly Better at Evaluating Scientific Claims by the end of 2024?