Prediction Markets Poll: What Is the Best Way To Solve the, "Alts," Problem On *Any* Prediction Markets Platform?

resolved Dec 1

Clear Rule Communication: Explicitly state the rules against alt accounts, ensuring they are specific and unambiguous.

Strict Penalties: Implement high fines and punitive measures, such as demotion from badges and trustworthiness scores.

Account Bans: Enforce a strict policy of banning accounts found to be involved in manipulation.

Enhanced Verification: Require rigorous authentication methods for login, such as mobile phone verification, to prevent multiple accounts.

Behavioral Analysis: Employ advanced algorithms to detect patterns indicative of alt accounts and manipulation.

Market Design Changes: Adjust the market mechanisms to reduce the incentives for creating alt accounts, such as delayed payouts or market cap thresholds.

Community Reporting: Encourage and facilitate community reporting of suspected alt accounts with subsequent investigation.

Whitelisting Participants: Allow only verified or invited users to participate in certain high-stake markets to limit the entry of alt accounts.

Limitations on New Accounts: Place restrictions on market participation for new accounts until they have reached certain activity or longevity milestones.

Other (Please Specify)

Pretend you are creating a new prediction markets platform of some type that you are responsible for. If you had to pick one direction, what do you think would be the best way to combat the, "Alts," problem (and why, if you are so inclined to answer)? You can comment other and offer your own solution which may be a combination of the above or a new solution. You may choose to comment why you picked the solution you did or why you don't like other particular solutions.

The Alts Problem:

Generally, creating multiple accounts in order to serve some other larger strategic goal, e.g. funneling money into a central account, increase one's chance of winnings, whether through the use of alt accounts, with or without an API, using a wide definition.

Why Alts Are Considered a Problem At Manifold

In short, it seems that Manifold (and likely any other platform) would rather spend resources on software, features and user growth than security. This is a common pattern across many companies and software offerings.
E.g., re: the Whales vs. Minnows market:

Example Past Alts Problem:

AmmonLam

From a Search on Discord / Manifold:
- @BTE used alts at one point, admited it and was fined for it, has been able to maintain a Trustworthy-Ish badge.
- User @PC evidently used a ton of alts at one point and was banned.
- There's the Mark Ingrahm problem which I am sure a lot of people remember.

Then there's a whole thread on @IsaacKing exploits here, with varying opinions, relating to whether rules need to be clearly spelled out, or whether a certain level of non-anti-social environment must be relied upon for a system to work, e.g., "we live in a society."

https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/1100521704578625618

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