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It was pointed out to me that my behavior on this market was trolling. I thought at the time people would think this was funny, but it's not really, "on brand," for me and probably was made a bit out of spite for all the AI doom markets, which I now see as less trolling and more for fun discussion. Not my proudest market.

Here are some other, "Ancient Markets" you can trade on, though I'm not sure if they give you a trader bonus like you would get with, "Ancient Markets"

If anyone who was injured by this market feels that I resolved this wrong please ping me here and I will compensate you, unless you are marked as a bot, in which case, screw you for taking our jobs as Manifold traders!

@PatrickDelaney I mean shouldn’t you have to disprove the simulation theory before you resolve this market?

@BTE 😂 Quintessential manifold comment, top tier, thank you.

If meat-body humans were wiped out, and since then only simulated humans have existed, does that count as humans being 'wiped out'?

@Duncn I did not think of that. Do you have any evidence of simulated humans?

I think this can conclusively resolve as NO, given continuity of historical & genetic records between pre-476 CE and post-476 CE? It's pretty clear that humanity was not "wiped out," especially outside of Europe & surrounding areas...

@evergreenemily How can you be sure though?

@evergreenemily Lots of other folks participating in, "AI wipe out humanity," markets get really mad if you make such definitive statements like that. Are you sure you're not actively contributing to humanity being wiped out by not considering all of the possible options?

@PatrickDelaney We've discovered human remains that are ~300,000 years old (in addition to countless thousands of others that are also well over 1,600 years old), so it's pretty clear that modern humans either are the same species as one that was around well before 476 CE, or are genetically and morphologically identical. It's clear that humans were around before 476, and afterwards, and that's not a successful "wiping out" of a species.

There's also records of a lot of people who were alive in both 475 CE and 477 CE: Liu Yu, Emperor Yūryaku, Odoacer, Julius Nepos, Conall Cremthainne, etc. etc.

@evergreenemily Nice troll market. I closed my No position based on creator’s comments, poor ROI to ride to zero.

@evergreenemily The market just says before 476. The experience of people living around the cutoff time isn’t particularly crucial.

The ancient human remains could be falsified, or the wipeout could have happened well before 300k years ago. It only took like 200 years to go from industrial revolution to current AI, blink and you miss it!

Of course it depends what is meant by wipeout. Of course humans are still here today, so some might argue that is itself evidence of no wipeout

@PatrickDelaney I'm not aware of people getting "really mad" in the other markets, did you have a concrete example in mind? I think everyone has been pretty laid back given that we're betting on when we will go extinct.

@AashiqDheeraj77eb I'm not going to actively resolve a market that's already found to be true.

@MartinRandall Granted, maybe I'm conflating Manifold Markets with the broader web and LessWrong, and I could be thinking of some of the hype from back around March/April around the time of, "the Moratorium Letter."

@PatrickDelaney How do you plan to resolve this?

@LukeHanks I'll use the consensus best methodology as cited by other markets here:

https://manifold.markets/group/ai-doom

AI Doom

Manifold public group with 20 members

@LukeHanks How about, never resolving it?

@PatrickDelaney Some of those markets have already resolved, once the date passed and humanity was not extinct, so to follow that process you can resolve this now.

@MartinRandall Hmm, you make a good point. The markets that correctly predicted that we didn't all die out did not resolve incorrectly about past events after it was clear we were not wiped out. I'll sleep on it.

@PatrickDelaney Yes, according to Manifold our monthly extinction risk is quite low!