Which of these military conflicts will "turn hot" next? [แน€1300 Pool]
China vs. Taiwan
Azerbaijan vs. Armenia
Israel vs. Iran
United States vs. Iran
Serbia vs. Kosovo
India vs. Pakistan

Scheduled to resolve in 2030, but will resolve early as soon as one of these conflicts enters the Wars or Major Wars category on Wikipedia's List of Ongoing Armed Conflicts.


Note how Wikipedia classifies conflicts on the page, i.e. if a conflict falls short at the end of the year its relevant fatality count will reset. Otherwise, I will be fairly liberal with what counts as a conflict. So if the U.S. and Israel declare war on Iran at the same time, the question would resolve 50/50. Two belligerents fighting as part of a broader conflict with a different Wiki heading still count as long as their (para)militaries are actually fighting each other.

Get แน€600 play money
Sort by:

I have created a (better) version of this market with more (multi-resolve) choices specifically for 2024:

Note that for Azerbaijan vs. Armenia, the annual rollover of that Wikipedia page's numbers will mean they are much less likely to be upgraded.

This is an interesting artefact of where we were 2 months ago, compared to the current Venezuela/Guyana fiasco.

What's the argument for India vs Pakistan turning hot soon?

@connorwilliams97 Kashmir has endemic fighting that Wikipedia considers an extension of that conflict, so its baseline is elevated. Also this is the first year it has increased annual deathtoll in a while.

More related questions