Scheduled to resolve in 2030, but will resolve early as soon as one of these conflicts enters the Wars or Major Wars category on Wikipedia's List of Ongoing Armed Conflicts.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_armed_conflicts

Note how Wikipedia classifies conflicts on the page, i.e. if a conflict falls short at the end of the year its relevant fatality count will reset. Otherwise, I will be fairly liberal with what counts as a conflict. So if the U.S. and Israel declare war on Iran at the same time, the question would resolve 50/50. Two belligerents fighting as part of a broader conflict with a different Wiki heading still count as long as their (para)militaries are actually fighting each other.

• Update 2025-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is evaluating if recent escalations, such as the direct conflict between Israel and Iran, could be interpreted as a belligerent 'actively rejoining' a broader, existing conflict.

  • If this interpretation is adopted, this could cause the broader conflict to meet the resolution criteria, even if the new escalation does not reach the 1,000-death threshold by itself.

  • The market has been temporarily closed to trading while this is discussed.