Which will happen first: first woman US President 👸or US gets into a new hot war 💥🪖? | Manifold

Which will happen first: first woman US President 👸or US gets into a new hot war 💥🪖?

137

1.3kṀ10k

2040

US war67%

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

War will be defined by Wikipedia entry on this page: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_the_United_States (“intervention” doesn’t count, has to have “war” in the title). US troops must be involved. Iraq war would’ve counted as yes, Ukraine war would’ve been no. For woman President it would resolve yes as soon as she is sworn into office.

Clarification: the Gaza war does not count as the US involvement is extremely limited

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bought Ṁ270 NO

https://bsky.app/profile/davidkaye.bsky.social/post/3kythk3zszc2b

What makes you think the US will go to war against Hezbollah or Lebanon?

Vibes.

nods

bought Ṁ200 NO

US hot war is underpriced due to the recent events in the Middle East

Biden nominates Kamala: 😁

BIDEN INVADES RUSSIA:💀

reposted

👀

/MartinRandall/which-will-happen-first-first-hot-u

We're asking the questions that Polymarket won't touch.

@MartinRandall Lol

opened a Ṁ50 YES at 50% order

@PaperBoy Does Operation Prosperity Guardian count?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Prosperity_Guardian

@Athena No, because the entry on the Wikipedia page that I linked in the description does not have “war” in the title

What if the VP is a woman who becomes president?

@Abraxas That counts. Sorry that my description wasn’t clear, I’ll edit it.

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People are also trading

Which will happen first: first hot US President 👸or US gets into a new woman war 💥🪖?

Will there be a female president of the United States before China and Taiwan go to war?

Which war will end first?

War with Iran, China, or Russia? (+ US president 2024)

Will the US get our first women president before a human lands on Mars

🇺🇸 Will the first woman to become President of the United States be a Republican or a Democrat?

When will the first white woman become president of the United States?

Will China have its first female General Secretary before the US has its first female President?

Will two countries led by women engage in war before 2100?

Will the US have a female or gender non-conforming president by 2033?

Related questions

Which will happen first: first hot US President 👸or US gets into a new woman war 💥🪖?

Will there be a female president of the United States before China and Taiwan go to war?

Which war will end first?

War with Iran, China, or Russia? (+ US president 2024)

Will the US get our first women president before a human lands on Mars

🇺🇸 Will the first woman to become President of the United States be a Republican or a Democrat?

When will the first white woman become president of the United States?

Will China have its first female General Secretary before the US has its first female President?

Will two countries led by women engage in war before 2100?

Will the US have a female or gender non-conforming president by 2033?

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