Resolves YES if at any point during 2023 Armenia and Azerbaijan exchange military fire for a period of two consecutive weeks OR resulting in 100 cumulative casualties.
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@BTE I'm assuming that you're using the word casualties and not fatalities intentionally? Market has been around a while but I just wanted to make sure.
Related market if this gets any new news! https://manifold.markets/Panfilo/what-will-be-the-next-hot-war-to-br?r=UGFuZmlsbw
I now have a successor market that should (... hopefully) last a little longer!
https://manifold.markets/Panfilo/which-of-these-military-conflicts-w?r=UGFuZmlsbw
It looks like this market should be resolved as YES.
From the market description:
> Resolves YES if at any point during 2023 Armenia and Azerbaijan exchange military fire for a period of two consecutive weeks OR resulting in 100 cumulative casualties.
Here is an official statement from Ministry of Health of the Republic of Azerbaijan
https://sehiyye.gov.az/media/xeberler-ve-yenilikler/az-rbaycan-respublikasinin-s-hiyy-nazirliyinin-m-lumati/
There is a text:
> Lokal antiterror tədbirləri zamanı Azərbaycan Respublikasının Silahlı Qüvvələrinin 192 hərbi qulluqçusu şəhid olmuşdur.
Google translates is as:
> 192 servicemen of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Azerbaijan were martyred during local anti-terrorist measures.
So there are more than 100 casualties on Azerbaijan's side — this means that the "OR" statement of the market descripton has been satisfied — "OR resulting in 100 cumulative casualties."
@SemioticRivalry the same way as Russia was not a party to the war in Donbass in 2014-2015.
@SemioticRivalry Armenia was not a party to the conflict.
Who was the parties that exchange military fire on september 19-20?
@bessarabov The armed forces of Nagorno Karabakh/Artsakh and the armed forces of Azerbaijan.
https://twitter.com/Karabakh_MoD
@SemioticRivalry From which nation do the people in the armed forces of Nagorno Karabakh/Artsakh originate?
@bessarabov those are people, who have armenian nationality, but who historically live on azerbaijan territory. That is why this was called a Local operation, because it is an operation against minority which tries to gain independence.
Armenia (government/country) has taken its forces away from the region long before the recent operation. It is not part of the events anymore.
@KongoLandwalker
> Armenia (government/country) has taken its forces away from the region long before the recent operation. It is not part of the events anymore.
On wikipedia page https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artsakh_Defence_Army there is stated
> The Nagorno-Karabakh military is deeply integrated with the Armenian military, and the NKR depends on the Armenian Army to ensure its survival as an independent national entity
@bessarabov Both sides agree that they did not fight a war, which is what is most relevant for this market.
@bessarabov i should watch into when amendments were made to that wiki page but i have no time now.
I have definitely seen news about Armenia taking its forces away in sept 2022. Year prior the events. Of course they have likely left their weapons to local formations, but neither nationality nor the guns origin defines Who the people fight for. It is defined by the structure they a part of and whose orders they execute.
@SemioticRivalry
> Both sides agree that they did not fight a war, which is what is most relevant for this market.
I haven't seen such statements. Can you please share some proofs.
@bessarabov Azeris referred to it as an 'anti-terror operation' against Karabakh separatists, not as war with Armenia. If it was war, then the border between AZ and AM shouldn't have been completely calm. And Armenia was very clear that none of its soldiers were in Karabakh and are now negotiating a potential peace treaty with AZ.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nagorno-Karabakh_clashes#Armenia
"Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that the Armenian Armed Forces were not involved in the fighting and that its forces were not stationed in Nagorno-Karabakh. [...]
Armenia's Ministry of Defense accused Azerbaijani officials of spreading misinformation, saying that there is no Armenian military equipment or personnel present in Nagorno-Karabakh."
Turkey and Azerbaijan are in official talks about establishing Zanzegur Corridor.
Azerbaijani and Turkish leaders hold talks, eye land corridor via Armenia | Reuters
@Betrayer For these who get paywalled.
Azerbaijani and Turkish leaders hold talks, eye land corridor via Armenia | Reuters (archive.ph)
@MP these two vice videos originally got me to do an autistic amount of research on the situation a few years ago
@SemioticRivalry terrific videos, I spent some time reading about it and the situation is very bad and depressing