@BTE I'm assuming that you're using the word casualties and not fatalities intentionally? Market has been around a while but I just wanted to make sure.

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/13/blinken-warned-lawmakers-azerbaijan-may-invade-armenia-in-coming-weeks-00121500

Blinken warned lawmakers Azerbaijan may invade Armenia in coming weeks

He also said State isn't planning to renew a long-standing waiver that allows the U.S. to provide military assistance to Baku.

@Multicore https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1121999

U.S. State Department denies report on Blinken warning lawmakers that Azerbaijan may invade Armenia soon

YEREVAN, OCTOBER 15, ARMENPRESS. The United States Department of State has denied the Politico report that claimed Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned U.S. lawmakers last week that Azerbaijan may invade Armenia in the coming weeks.

Related market if this gets any new news! https://manifold.markets/Panfilo/what-will-be-the-next-hot-war-to-br?r=UGFuZmlsbw

What will be the next "hot war" to break out?

Scheduled to end in 2030, but will resolve early whenever Wikipedia moves a new entry into the Major Wars or Wars sections on their List of Ongoing Armed Conflicts: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_armed_conflicts For example, by these standards, both the Russo-Ukrainian War and the renewed Israeli-Palestinian Conflict would have counted as new hot wars. Please only submit new possibilities that are either a unique combination of two or more belligerants, or are a single country (which will only trigger for an internal conflict). Do not paraphrase. The Wikipedia update must be based on a new development, and not a change in historiography. Minor Conflicts can escalate into Wars based on their death toll. Feel free to ask clarifying questions!

I now have a successor market that should (... hopefully) last a little longer!
https://manifold.markets/Panfilo/which-of-these-military-conflicts-w?r=UGFuZmlsbw

Which of these military conflicts will "turn hot" next?

Scheduled to resolve in 2030, but will resolve early as soon as one of these conflicts enters the Wars or Major Wars category on Wikipedia's List of Ongoing Armed Conflicts. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_armed_conflicts Note how Wikipedia classifies conflicts on the page, i.e. if a conflict falls short at the end of the year its relevant fatality count will reset. Otherwise, I will be fairly liberal with what counts as a conflict. So if the U.S. and Israel declare war on Iran at the same time, the question would resolve 50/50. Two belligerents fighting as part of a broader conflict with a different Wiki heading still count as long as their (para)militaries are actually fighting each other.

It looks like this market should be resolved as YES.

From the market description:

> Resolves YES if at any point during 2023 Armenia and Azerbaijan exchange military fire for a period of two consecutive weeks OR resulting in 100 cumulative casualties.

Here is an official statement from Ministry of Health of the Republic of Azerbaijan

https://sehiyye.gov.az/media/xeberler-ve-yenilikler/az-rbaycan-respublikasinin-s-hiyy-nazirliyinin-m-lumati/

There is a text:

> Lokal antiterror tədbirləri zamanı Azərbaycan Respublikasının Silahlı Qüvvələrinin 192 hərbi qulluqçusu şəhid olmuşdur.

Google translates is as:

> 192 servicemen of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Azerbaijan were martyred during local anti-terrorist measures.

So there are more than 100 casualties on Azerbaijan's side — this means that the "OR" statement of the market descripton has been satisfied — "OR resulting in 100 cumulative casualties."

@bessarabov Armenia was not a party to the conflict.

@SemioticRivalry the same way as Russia was not a party to the war in Donbass in 2014-2015.

@SemioticRivalry Armenia was not a party to the conflict.

Who was the parties that exchange military fire on september 19-20?

@bessarabov The armed forces of Nagorno Karabakh/Artsakh and the armed forces of Azerbaijan.

https://twitter.com/Karabakh_MoD

@SemioticRivalry From which nation do the people in the armed forces of Nagorno Karabakh/Artsakh originate?

@bessarabov Azerbaijan?

@bessarabov those are people, who have armenian nationality, but who historically live on azerbaijan territory. That is why this was called a Local operation, because it is an operation against minority which tries to gain independence.

Armenia (government/country) has taken its forces away from the region long before the recent operation. It is not part of the events anymore.

@KongoLandwalker

> Armenia (government/country) has taken its forces away from the region long before the recent operation. It is not part of the events anymore.

On wikipedia page https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artsakh_Defence_Army there is stated

> The Nagorno-Karabakh military is deeply integrated with the Armenian military, and the NKR depends on the Armenian Army to ensure its survival as an independent national entity

@bessarabov Both sides agree that they did not fight a war, which is what is most relevant for this market.

@bessarabov i should watch into when amendments were made to that wiki page but i have no time now.

I have definitely seen news about Armenia taking its forces away in sept 2022. Year prior the events. Of course they have likely left their weapons to local formations, but neither nationality nor the guns origin defines Who the people fight for. It is defined by the structure they a part of and whose orders they execute.

@SemioticRivalry

> Both sides agree that they did not fight a war, which is what is most relevant for this market.

I haven't seen such statements. Can you please share some proofs.

@bessarabov Azeris referred to it as an 'anti-terror operation' against Karabakh separatists, not as war with Armenia. If it was war, then the border between AZ and AM shouldn't have been completely calm. And Armenia was very clear that none of its soldiers were in Karabakh and are now negotiating a potential peace treaty with AZ.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nagorno-Karabakh_clashes#Armenia

"Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that the Armenian Armed Forces were not involved in the fighting and that its forces were not stationed in Nagorno-Karabakh. [...]

Armenia's Ministry of Defense accused Azerbaijani officials of spreading misinformation, saying that there is no Armenian military equipment or personnel present in Nagorno-Karabakh."

Turkey and Azerbaijan are in official talks about establishing Zanzegur Corridor.

Azerbaijani and Turkish leaders hold talks, eye land corridor via Armenia | Reuters

@Betrayer For these who get paywalled.

Azerbaijani and Turkish leaders hold talks, eye land corridor via Armenia | Reuters (archive.ph)

Arbitrage opportunity: https://manifold.markets/Inimicizie/will-there-be-either-a-peace-agreem

Will there be either a peace agreement or a war between Armenia and Azerbaijan before 2024?

60% chance. Ci sarà una guerra o un trattato di pace tra Armenia e Azerbaijan prima del 2024?

Guys. What is a good primer on the subject?

@MP these two vice videos originally got me to do an autistic amount of research on the situation a few years ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vw8WkEsHxmI

Life Under the Bombs as Armenia and Azerbaijan Return to War

Fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the contested region of Nagorno-Karabakh has intensified sharply, as both sides accused the other of targeting c...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AW6IgzeMjpE

@SemioticRivalry terrific videos, I spent some time reading about it and the situation is very bad and depressing

@MP i just hope all those people are okay, they've been through so much