During what months will someone be killed by US election-related political violence?
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33
Ṁ12k
Feb 2
15%
October 2024
39%
November 2024
15%
December 2024
31%
January 2025

A month resolves Yes if anyone, whether they are a citizen or not, is killed directly because of US election-related political violence during the month in question (EST). The location of the killing does have to be within the United States or its territories/waters, as the spirit of this market is about the degree of violence and chaos in the country caused by the approach and outcome of the 2024 presidential race.

A death that is related to politics but clearly not to the presidential election will not be sufficient for a Yes. ie., I would not count Green Peace killing an infamous whaler. I also would not count a nazi killing an antifa at a punk bar in Portland unless one of them said or did something in the incident framing it as about Trump's re-election or something similar.

On the other hand, a death that occured between election protestors and counter-protestors would be easy to resolve as Yes, as would any death amidst an insurrection, such as the shooting death that occured from the January 6th 2021 capital riot.

If there is ambiguity, a preponderance of framing by CNN, the BBC, and the Washington Post will be used. If someone is injured by political violence and dies days later from those injuries, I will resolve Yes for when they actually died.

If there is ongoing political violence in late January, I may add additional months. Please feel free to ask clarifying questions in the comments.

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Does "political violence" in this question's sense include violence carried out by the government (police, military, secret service, etc., for instance police shooting of protestors) or do you mean for political violence to include only violence by civilian actors?

That would absolutely count assuming all the other elements were in place. If a cop kills an election protestor at an unrelated traffic stop that would obviously not count, though.

For clarity, how would this have resolved in July?

If there's a specific incident you're thinking of, feel free to link it. I was not looking for this kind of story last month.

opened a Ṁ500 October 2024 NO at 21% order

That would have been sufficient for a Yes. Even though the shooter's motives were murky, the apparent target selection of "whichever presidential candidate he could get a shot on" does make this "election-related political violence." Of course, I would always hear out people arguing for some kind of obvious contradiction that I missed!

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