Will Matt Welch's prediction of deadly political violence in the US in 2024 hold up?
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Reason magazine's Matt Welch recently wrote an article predicting "deadly" political violence in US streets in 2024 (https://reason.com/2023/12/26/prediction-2024-will-see-deadly-political-violence-in-the-streets/). I'm somewhat skeptical, though I will concede he doesn't specify what he considers deadly.

After a bit of research, the US average for this sort of thing in the 21st century seems to be about 8 deaths yearly. 2020 had 19, which is I think a good benchmark for "unusually bad." I have a related question bucketing out some options.

I will resolve this question YES if the related question below resolves to 15 deaths or higher:

Any other situation should resolve NO. I don't see any obvious ways this could resolve N/A (other than the underlying market resolving N/A, but that shouldn't happen for any reason). If you guys have questions or want clarification on edge cases feel free to ask. I do intend to bet in this market, but not the underlying one.

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I was going to bet on this market, but then I realized that I'd have to spend more than 15 seconds caring about what Matt Walsh thinks.

predicts NO

@Lorxus Welch, not Walsh. I'm talking about one of the editors of reason magazine.

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